BO · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z90000 – BO Signal Composite
the data source is the only KYM grains-seasonal truth that survived the Romano-Wolf FWER correction at 5%. Deviation from the pattern in-window is a real anomaly, not noise.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.290
BO Signal Composite composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Truth Violated
6 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals signal composite bullish; negative equals signal composite bearish
Sample
37 years
Live since 1989-11
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
the data source is the only KYM grains-seasonal truth that survived the Romano-Wolf FWER correction at 5%. Deviation from the pattern in-window is a real anomaly, not noise. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 37 years Phase +1 signal composite bullish state has returned on average plus 5.94 percent forward 60-day soybean-oil return. Phase -1 signal composite bearish state has returned on average minus 2.06 percent. Today the composite reads -0.290, in Truth Violated territory.
LIVE CHART
BO Signal Composite: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks signal composite bearish regime. The pale green band marks signal composite bullish regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is CBOT soybean-oil continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per pound.
COMPOSITE
-0.290 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.58 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,301 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Truth Violated
STATE AND HISTORY
Truth Violated. Sample N=9,301 days since 1989-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
the data source is the only KYM grains-seasonal truth that survived the Romano-Wolf FWER correction at 5%. Deviation from the pattern in-window is a real anomaly, not noise.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.290 placing the dot inside the Truth Violated band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day soybean-oil returns and sample share
Baseline soybean-oil forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.58 percent, median plus 0.33 percent, across 9,241 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Signal composite bullish | +1 | 5.8% (540 d) | +6.54% | +4.96pp | Oct 2026, Sep 2026, Sep 2026 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 86.2% (8017 d) | +1.49% | -0.09pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Sep 2026 | |
| Signal composite bearish | -1 | 8.0% (744 d) | -0.96% | -2.54pp | Oct 2026, Aug 2025, Aug 2025 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
5 state transitions from 11/21/2024 to 11/06/2026. Full history (64 total transitions since 03/14/1996) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 11/21/2024 | 12/20/2024 | 21d | +2.81% |
| Defensive | 12/23/2024 | 03/25/2025 | 63d | -5.16% |
| Neutral | 03/26/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 21d | +5.55% |
| Expansion | 04/25/2025 | 05/23/2025 | 21d | +15.18% |
| Defensive LIVE | 05/27/2025 | current | 366d | +7.51% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
the data source is the only KYM grains-seasonal truth that survived the Romano-Wolf FWER correction at 5%. Deviation from the pattern in-window is a real anomaly, not noise. The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
the data source is the only KYM grains-seasonal truth that survived the Romano-Wolf FWER correction at 5%. Deviation from the pattern in-window is a real anomaly, not noise.
The signal flags the current soybean-oil regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 37 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 07, 2026 05:51 PM ET