GC · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z9205 – GC Shock Cluster State
GC models built on real rates or DXY miss the sovereign channel entirely. Volkonskaya: her buying is price-insensitive and mandate-driven.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.397
GC Shock Cluster State composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Moderate NEG
86 trading days in current state
Phase
STRESS
Positive equals shock cluster active; negative equals shock cluster quiescent
Sample
36 years
Live since 1990-11
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
GC models built on real rates or DXY miss the sovereign channel entirely. Volkonskaya: her buying is price-insensitive and mandate-driven. responds to counterparty risk events (sanctions, asset freezes, geopolitical crises) not to valuation. This signal captures the event-clustering that triggers new sovereign accumulation programs. Historical alignment: 2022 h1 GPR cluster (Ukraine invasion) -> persistent GC bid 2022-2024; 2023 Middle East cluster -> reinforcement wave. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 36 years Phase +1 shock cluster active state has returned on average plus 0.88 percent forward 60-day gold return. Phase -1 shock cluster quiescent state has returned on average plus 0.47 percent. Today the composite reads -0.397, in Moderate NEG territory.
LIVE CHART
GC Shock Cluster State: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks shock cluster quiescent regime. The pale green band marks shock cluster active regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX gold continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in dollars per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.397 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +0.78 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,024 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Moderate NEG. Sample N=9,024 days since 1990-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
GC models built on real rates or DXY miss the sovereign channel entirely. Volkonskaya: her buying is price-insensitive and mandate-driven. responds to counterparty risk events (sanctions, asset freezes, geopolitical crises) not to valuation.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.397 placing the dot inside the Moderate NEG band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day gold returns and sample share
Baseline gold forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 0.78 percent, median plus 0.09 percent, across 8,964 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shock cluster active | +1 | 23.7% (2135 d) | +0.88% | +0.10pp | Mar 2026, Jun 2025, Jun 2025 | |
| Normal | 0 | 36.0% (3251 d) | +1.07% | +0.28pp | Jun 2026, Mar 2026, Sep 2025 | |
| Shock cluster quiescent TODAY | -1 | 40.3% (3638 d) | +0.47% | -0.31pp | Jul 2026, Sep 2025, Jul 2024 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
12 state transitions from 11/18/2024 to 11/06/2026. Full history (171 total transitions since 11/30/1990) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 11/18/2024 | 03/19/2025 | 83d | +3.66% |
| Expansion | 03/20/2025 | 06/03/2025 | 52d | +6.58% |
| Neutral | 06/04/2025 | 06/04/2025 | 1d | +8.24% |
| Expansion | 06/05/2025 | 06/06/2025 | 2d | +7.96% |
| Neutral | 06/09/2025 | 06/17/2025 | 7d | +8.24% |
| Expansion | 06/18/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 51d | +10.62% |
| Neutral | 09/02/2025 | 09/17/2025 | 12d | +5.43% |
| Defensive | 09/18/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 113d | +2.81% |
| Neutral | 03/03/2026 | 03/10/2026 | 6d | +10.92% |
| Expansion | 03/11/2026 | 06/10/2026 | 64d | +9.05% |
| Neutral | 06/11/2026 | 07/08/2026 | 18d | +3.82% |
| Defensive LIVE | 07/09/2026 | current | 86d | +2.39% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
GC models built on real rates or DXY miss the sovereign channel entirely. Volkonskaya: her buying is price-insensitive and mandate-driven. responds to counterparty risk events (sanctions, asset freezes, geopolitical crises) not to valuation. This signal captures the event-clustering that triggers new sovereign accumulation programs. Historical alignment: 2022 h1 GPR cluster (Ukraine invasion) -> persistent GC bid 2022-2024; 2023 Middle East cluster -> reinforcement wave. The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
GC models built on real rates or DXY miss the sovereign channel entirely. Volkonskaya: her buying is price-insensitive and mandate-driven. responds to counterparty risk events (sanctions, asset freezes, geopolitical crises) not to valuation. This signal captures the event-clustering that triggers new sovereign accumulation programs. Historical alignment: 2022 h1 GPR cluster (Ukraine invasion) -> persistent GC bid 2022-2024; 2023 Middle East cluster -> reinforcement wave.
The signal flags the current gold regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 36 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 07, 2026 03:32 PM ET