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Technical Overview

HO

Heating Oil

Bottom-line readHIGH confidence · 72 active cells

BEAR

1.1/10 · Most bearish reading since May 2015

Validated technical signals are pointing bearish, at an extreme level versus this market’s own history.

Flipped from LEAN BEAR to BEAR on 2026-11-04 — 2 trading days in current read.

Latest bar: 2026-11-05

The read at three time scales

The same tape, read on three different clocks. Daily is the fast-moving tactical read, Weekly is the slower structural read, and Confluence only speaks when both the daily and weekly reads agree with each other.

Daily

Fast-moving tactical read

BEAR

1.0/10

34 of 53 signals active

Weekly

Slower structural read

LEAN BEAR

2.8/10

27 of 30 signals active

Confluence

Daily and weekly agree

NEUTRAL

5.5/10

11 of 22 signals active

What each kind of signal is saying

Only showing categories with signals active right now. When trend signals and momentum signals disagree, that tension is the story.

Trend

Fractal dimension

NEUTRAL · 1/2 active

fdi trending

Trend

LEAN BULL · 2/3 active

Trend Linreg (50) — r2 high trend long

Momentum

Momentum oscillators

NEUTRAL · 1/1 active

Roc (20) — momentum persist

Mean reversion

Mean reversion

BEAR · 2/3 active

Zscore Quantile Transform — extreme revert (inverse)

Breakout

Breakout & range

LEAN BEAR · 2/2 active

Donchian channel (55) — breakout

Volatility

Return-distribution shape

NEUTRAL · 1/2 active

Mom4 Cs — regime shift hys (2)

Volatility

BEAR · 4/7 active

Bollinger band width (20) — squeeze (inverse)

Cycle

Cycle analysis

BEAR · 3/4 active

Ehlers Center-of-Gravity — regime (inverse)

Regime

Information theory

BEAR · 5/5 active

Mutual information — lo complexity (inverse)

Regime detection

BEAR · 8/9 active

Gaussian-mixture regime — hi prob (inverse)

Statistical tests

BEAR · 4/8 active

Jbnorm — reject (inverse)

Structure

Breadth

BEAR · 3/4 active

Cross-sectional z-score — mom (inverse)

Microstructure

BEAR · 7/9 active

Micro Kyle — illiq lo (inverse)

Volume

NEUTRAL · 3/4 active

Ts Oistruct — front heavy (inverse)

Patterns

Bar patterns

BEAR · 1/1 active

Gap Patterns — gap island

Composite indicators

NEUTRAL · 2/3 active

Mom Kst — price div bear (inverse)

Cross-asset relative strength

LEAN BULL · 1/2 active

Cot Commercial Net — cot comm extreme short bull

Pair & cointegration

LEAN BULL · 1/1 active

Pair Granger F — pair granger causal

Strongest signals right now

The ten most influential technical signals currently active. Each has been validated against years of history — the h60 return column is the average 60-day move that historically followed the signal, and hit is how often it was in the right direction.

Dir Scale Type Signal Edge Recent fires h60 return Hit rate Sample
BULL Weekly Pair & cointegration Pair Granger F Direct 4 +16.92% 66% 336
BULL Weekly Volume Vol Nvi Pvi Direct 4 +8.61% 56% 1170
BULL Weekly Breakout & range Donchian channel (55) Direct 4 +7.13% 55% 1864
BULL Weekly Cycle analysis Ehlers Sine-Wave Direct 4 +6.25% 54% 1838
BEAR Weekly Volatility Bollinger band width (20) Inverse 4 +8.17% 57% 1433
BULL Weekly Return-distribution shape Mom4 Cs Direct 4 +6.71% 55% 1889
BULL Weekly Statistical tests Jbnorm Direct 4 +16.58% 63% 535
BEAR Weekly Statistical tests Jbnorm Inverse 4 +16.58% 63% 535
BEAR Weekly Statistical tests ADF stationarity Inverse 4 +10.06% 58% 1374
BEAR Weekly Regime detection Vol regime (2-state HMM) Inverse 4 +7.66% 57% 1645

How the read has shifted (last 60 trading days)

Each bar is one trading day. Bars above the zero line are bullish; bars below are bearish. Height shows how strong the read was.

Period range-9.9 to +45.9
+500−50
08-1408-2809-1109-2510-0910-2311-05
Latest-4.2BEARas of 2026-11-05

How the verdict is built

The verdict aggregates every classical technical signal we track on this market — momentum, trend, volatility, cycle, breadth, and so on — into a single read. Each signal has been validated out-of-sample on this market’s history (currently 105 signals pass the bar for HO). Four factors determine how much each signal contributes.

  1. Edge strength. How large and reliable is the historical edge? A signal with a 70% hit rate and a 6% average 60-day follow-through contributes more than one with a 54% hit rate and a 2% follow-through.
  2. Recency. A signal that fired this week counts more than one that fired three months ago. Fast daily signals fade out over about six weeks; slower weekly signals stay relevant for about six months.
  3. Confirmation. After a signal fires, we watch the market. If price moves the way the signal predicted (vol-adjusted), the signal’s contribution is amplified. If the market moves the other way, the contribution fades toward zero.
  4. Market-adaptive ranking. The final reading is ranked against this market’s own history over the past ~6 years. A bearish bias that would barely register on crude oil could be an extreme reading on the S&P — percentile ranking handles this automatically, so verdicts are comparable across markets.

Confidence tier

How many independent signals are currently driving the verdict: HIGH (15+ active) · MODERATE (5–14) · LOW (fewer than 5). A high-confidence read is backed by many independent signals pointing the same way; a low-confidence read could be a handful of signals amplified by a lucky move.

What this is not

  • Not a trade recommendation. No transaction cost, slippage, or position-sizing model is applied here.
  • Not a backtest of the overall verdict. The individual signals are validated out-of-sample, but the way they’re combined into one number is a consensus device, not itself a trading system.
  • Not treating correlated signals as independent. Several momentum indicators pointing the same way count as separate votes here.

Refreshed nightly. Last update: 2026-11-07T22:57:29+00:00.