PA · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z102106 – PA US PGM Export YoY Z
Demand-side complement to a sibling signal (Russia sanctions supply) + a sibling signal (SA supply).
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.000
PA US PGM Export YoY Z composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Neutral
7 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals us pgm exports surging; negative equals us pgm exports weak
Sample
37 years
Live since 1989-12
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Demand-side complement to a sibling signal (Russia sanctions supply) + a sibling signal (SA supply). The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 37 years Phase +1 us pgm exports surging state has returned on average plus 1.52 percent forward 60-day palladium return. Phase -1 us pgm exports weak state has returned on average minus 3.06 percent. Today the composite reads , in territory.
LIVE CHART
PA US PGM Export YoY Z: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks us pgm exports weak regime. The pale green band marks us pgm exports surging regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is NYMEX palladium continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.000 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.27 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,264 days
TODAY'S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NEUTRAL
STATE AND HISTORY
. Sample N=9,264 days since 1989-12.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Demand-side complement to a sibling signal (Russia sanctions supply) + a sibling signal (SA supply).
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.000 placing the dot inside the Neutral band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day palladium returns and sample share
Baseline palladium forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.27 percent, median plus 0.85 percent, across 9,204 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US PGM exports surging | +1 | 13.4% (1242 d) | +0.54% | -0.73pp | Jul 2026, Dec 2025, Oct 2025 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 71.7% (6643 d) | +2.05% | +0.78pp | Oct 2026, Jun 2026, Nov 2025 | |
| US PGM exports weak | -1 | 14.9% (1379 d) | -1.86% | -3.13pp | Jul 2024, Sep 2021, Sep 2019 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Demand-side complement to a sibling signal (Russia sanctions supply) + a sibling signal (SA supply). The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
Demand-side complement to a sibling signal (Russia sanctions supply) + a sibling signal (SA supply).
The signal flags the current palladium regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 37 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 08:37 PM ET