PA · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z4601 – PA Russia Geopolitical Risk
Russia = ~40% world palladium via Nornickel. Sanctions + 2022 Ukraine invasion drove PA to record highs. AS_IS . Russia stress = bullish PA via supply risk.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.490
PA Russia Geopolitical Risk composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Moderate POS
110 trading days in current state
Phase
HEALTHY
Positive equals elevated russia gpr; negative equals calm russia gpr
Sample
36 years
Live since 1990-12
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Russia = ~40% world palladium via Nornickel. Sanctions + 2022 Ukraine invasion drove PA to record highs. AS_IS . Russia stress = bullish PA via supply risk. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 36 years Phase +1 elevated russia gpr state has returned on average plus 2.48 percent forward 60-day palladium return. Phase -1 calm russia gpr state has returned on average plus 0.72 percent. Today the composite reads +0.490, in Moderate POS territory.
LIVE CHART
PA Russia Geopolitical Risk: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks calm russia gpr regime. The pale green band marks elevated russia gpr regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is NYMEX palladium continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.490 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +3.12 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,020 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Moderate POS. Sample N=9,020 days since 1990-12.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Russia = ~40% world palladium via Nornickel. Sanctions + 2022 Ukraine invasion drove PA to record highs. AS_IS . Russia stress = bullish PA via supply risk.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.490 placing the dot inside the Moderate POS band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day palladium returns and sample share
Baseline palladium forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 3.12 percent, median plus 2.74 percent, across 8,960 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elevated Russia GPR TODAY | +1 | 48.2% (4344 d) | +4.75% | +1.63pp | Jun 2026, Feb 2026, Jul 2025 | |
| Normal | 0 | 24.7% (2230 d) | +1.71% | -1.41pp | Apr 2026, Jan 2026, Jun 2025 | |
| Calm Russia GPR | -1 | 27.1% (2446 d) | +1.54% | -1.58pp | Mar 2026, Feb 2023, Nov 2021 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Russia = ~40% world palladium via Nornickel. Sanctions + 2022 Ukraine invasion drove PA to record highs. AS_IS . Russia stress = bullish PA via supply risk. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
Russia = ~40% world palladium via Nornickel. Sanctions + 2022 Ukraine invasion drove PA to record highs. AS_IS . Russia stress = bullish PA via supply risk.
The signal flags the current palladium regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 36 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 07:49 PM ET