SI · Metals / Physical Trade Flow
Z102609 – SI Silver US-to-China Exports
Chinese industrial and retail silver pull from the US market drives silver demand; US-to-China silver-bullion export flow captures the pull with V-shape state-conditional edge where transition periods underperform.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.990
US-China HS710691 silver YoY z-score, tanh-bounded
Signal state
China Slack Mild
80 trading days in current state
Phase
STRESS
Positive equals elevated China pull; 0 transition; negative weak
Sample
15 years
US customs HS710691 since February 2011
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
China and the US are the two dominant silver economies: US produces bullion and refines it; China is the largest industrial and retail consumer. The flow of silver-bullion exports from US to China captures Chinese demand in real-time via trade data. US customs reports monthly exports under HS code 710691 (silver in bullion form). This signal reads the series, computes year-on-year z-score, and bounds through tanh. On May 17 2019 the composite reached its series maximum plus 1.000 during peak Chinese demand. On October 18 2022 the composite reached minus 1.000 during the zero-COVID industrial slowdown in China. Phase +1 China-pull-elevated has delivered plus 1.72 percent mean forward 60-day silver return; Phase -1 weak-pull plus 0.98 percent; Phase 0 transition minus 1.77 percent. Transition periods between regimes carry the weakest forward edge. Today the composite reads -0.990, in China Slack Mild territory.
LIVE CHART
Thirty-six years of GC over SI, Z-scored against the trailing five-year baseline, bounded by tanh.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band at the top marks elevated-China-pull regime. The pale green band at the bottom marks weak-pull regime. The transition middle band is where Phase 0 underperforms. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX SI continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.600 / tanh
STATE
Moderate Neg
PHASE
-1
FWD 60d
+4.09% (baseline +2.32%)
SAMPLE N
9,016 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
China Slack Mild
STATE AND HISTORY
China Slack Mild. The composite is reading sustained negative-Z territory as silver’s partial catch-up against gold through 2025-2026 brings the ratio down against a 5 year baseline that still anchors on the 2022-2024 compression peaks.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
The 1,260 day rolling baseline has not yet rolled off the 2022-2024 peak-compression window. As those peak-compression days drop out through 2027, the baseline will normalize downward and the Z-score will drift back toward zero even without further ratio changes.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a fast-reacting Z-score framing with saturation sensitivity. Readers should pair with the 20 year percentile companion signal (which reads the current ratio as moderately above baseline on the longer historical view) and physical-market silver signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.990 placing the dot inside the China Slack Mild band. US customs HS710691 refreshes monthly.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- US HS710691 monthly exports to China Primary input; silver bullion in USD value.
- Year-on-year z-score Normalized against trailing baseline.
- Rolling smooth Attenuates single-month reporting noise.
THE REGIME MAP
The five regime states, forward returns and sample share
Baseline SPY forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 2.31 percent, median plus 3.14 percent, standard deviation 7.23 percent, percent negative 29.57 percent across 8,494 trading days. The signal’s primary target is silver forward returns.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China pull elevated | +1 | 36.6% (1450 d) | +1.72% | +0.70pp | Sep 2025, Feb 2024, Dec 2022 | |
| Transition | 0 | 8.3% (330 d) | -1.77% | -2.79pp | May 2026, Nov 2024, Feb 2023 | |
| China pull weak TODAY | -1 | 55.0% (2178 d) | +0.98% | -0.04pp | Jul 2026, Mar 2025, Jul 2024 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d COMEX SI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day COMEX SI is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
US silver-bullion exports to China via the HS710691 customs code track physical silver movement from US refiners and Comex vaults to Chinese industrial consumers and retail markets. The engine reads monthly flow data, computes year-on-year z-score, smooths, and bounds through tanh.
Why it matters
China is the largest silver consumer; US is a major bullion exporter. Direct US-to-China silver flow measures Chinese pull better than aggregate import data.
Phase +1 elevated China pull delivers above-baseline silver returns. Avoid transition Phase 0 which carries the weakest forward edge.
US-China trade policy shifts (tariffs, export controls, sanctions) can create artificial swings in reported flow unrelated to underlying demand.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 11:39 AM ET