SLV · Metals / Positioning Contrarian
Z2444 – SLV CFTC Silver YoY Positioning
Washed-out silver speculator positioning year-on-year flags contrarian-bullish setups; captures 447 basis-point edge on SLV forward 60-day returns.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.393
CFTC silver positioning YoY z, sign-flipped, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Moderate Revert
1 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals positioning washed-out; negative equals extended
Sample
18 years
CFTC history since April 2008
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
CFTC silver positioning swings on 1-to-2-year cycles reflecting speculator demand regimes. When positioning has collapsed year-on-year (speculators washed out), silver has historically set up for mean-reversion rallies. This signal reads weekly CFTC silver positioning, computes year-on-year z-score, sign-flips for contrarian polarity, and bounds through tanh. On July 20 2017 the composite reached its series maximum plus 0.996 during a washed-out positioning window. On October 4 2012 the composite reached its series minimum minus 0.998 during peak-extended positioning. Phase +1 washed-out state has delivered plus 4.49 percent mean SLV forward 60-day return versus Phase -1 extended plus 0.02 percent, a 447 basis-point edge. Today the composite reads +0.393, in Moderate Revert territory.
LIVE CHART
Thirty-six years of GC over SI, Z-scored against the trailing five-year baseline, bounded by tanh.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band at the top marks washed-out positioning. The pale green band at the bottom marks extended positioning. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX SI continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.600 / tanh
STATE
Moderate Neg
PHASE
-1
FWD 60d
+4.09% (baseline +2.32%)
SAMPLE N
9,016 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Revert
STATE AND HISTORY
Moderate Revert. The composite is reading sustained negative-Z territory as silver’s partial catch-up against gold through 2025-2026 brings the ratio down against a 5 year baseline that still anchors on the 2022-2024 compression peaks.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
The 1,260 day rolling baseline has not yet rolled off the 2022-2024 peak-compression window. As those peak-compression days drop out through 2027, the baseline will normalize downward and the Z-score will drift back toward zero even without further ratio changes.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a fast-reacting Z-score framing with saturation sensitivity. Readers should pair with the 20 year percentile companion signal (which reads the current ratio as moderately above baseline on the longer historical view) and physical-market silver signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.393 placing the dot inside the Moderate Revert band. Weekly CFTC release Fridays 3:30 PM Eastern.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- CFTC silver positioning Weekly Commitments of Traders.
- Year-on-year z-score Positioning change against trailing year.
- Sign flip for contrarian polarity Washed-out positioning reads positive.
THE REGIME MAP
The five regime states, forward returns and sample share
Baseline SPY forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 2.31 percent, median plus 3.14 percent, standard deviation 7.23 percent, percent negative 29.57 percent across 8,494 trading days. The signal’s primary target is silver forward returns.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Positioning washed | +1 | 45.0% (2097 d) | +4.49% | +1.64pp | Jun 2025, Mar 2025, Dec 2024 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 16.1% (752 d) | +5.23% | +2.38pp | Nov 2026, Jun 2025, Mar 2025 | |
| Positioning extended | -1 | 38.9% (1811 d) | +0.02% | -2.83pp | Jan 2025, Jul 2024, Feb 2024 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d COMEX SI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day COMEX SI is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Silver speculators get washed out during sustained downtrends then mean-revert. CFTC-reported silver positioning compressed year-on-year captures these washed-out setups where contrarian silver rallies have historically followed. The engine reads weekly CFTC silver positioning, computes year-on-year z, and bounds through tanh.
Why it matters
When CFTC silver positioning drops sharply YoY, speculator capacity to force further declines is exhausted. Mean-reversion rallies typically follow.
447 basis-point state-conditional edge is the largest in the silver TruthSayer-B queue. Pair with cross-metal ratio for ratio-plus-positioning view.
Strong trending silver declines can continue past washed-out positioning. Pair with macro signals to avoid falling-knife setups.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 11:29 AM ET