SI · Metals / Positioning Momentum
Z6900 – SI Silver CFTC MM Net-Long
Managed-money speculator positioning in silver carries momentum-continuation signal; elevated net-long positioning has delivered a 477 basis-point edge on forward 60-day silver returns.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.166
CFTC managed-money net-long z-score, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Normal
13 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals elevated positioning; negative equals washed out
Sample
36 years
CFTC DCOT history since November 1990
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Speculator positioning in silver carries directional signal. When managed-money traders accumulate net-long positions, the speculative-demand channel has historically supported silver on multi-month horizons. When positioning collapses (washed-out state), silver has underperformed. This signal reads weekly CFTC DCOT managed-money net-long positioning, forward-fills daily, z-scores on a rolling window, and bounds through tanh. On October 12 2006 the composite reached its series maximum plus 0.9849 at peak pre-GFC speculator long positioning. On August 14 2006 the composite reached minus 1.0000 in a washed-out positioning window. Phase +1 elevated-positioning has delivered plus 3.94 percent mean forward 60-day silver return versus Phase -1 washed-out minus 0.83 percent, a 477 basis-point edge. Today the composite reads -0.166, in Normal territory.
LIVE CHART
Thirty-six years of GC over SI, Z-scored against the trailing five-year baseline, bounded by tanh.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band at the top marks elevated-positioning regime. The pale green band at the bottom marks washed-out regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX SI continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.600 / tanh
STATE
Moderate Neg
PHASE
-1
FWD 60d
+4.09% (baseline +2.32%)
SAMPLE N
9,016 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Normal. The composite is reading sustained negative-Z territory as silver’s partial catch-up against gold through 2025-2026 brings the ratio down against a 5 year baseline that still anchors on the 2022-2024 compression peaks.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
The 1,260 day rolling baseline has not yet rolled off the 2022-2024 peak-compression window. As those peak-compression days drop out through 2027, the baseline will normalize downward and the Z-score will drift back toward zero even without further ratio changes.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a fast-reacting Z-score framing with saturation sensitivity. Readers should pair with the 20 year percentile companion signal (which reads the current ratio as moderately above baseline on the longer historical view) and physical-market silver signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.166 placing the dot inside the Normal band. CFTC publishes weekly Fridays at 3:30 PM Eastern with Tuesday-of-prior-week reference. Watch for step-changes on Fridays as actionable regime shifts.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- CFTC DCOT managed-money net-long Weekly net-long contracts from Disaggregated Commitments of Traders.
- Rolling z-score Standardizes positioning against trailing baseline.
- Market phase direction Direction of current state run.
THE REGIME MAP
The five regime states, forward returns and sample share
Baseline SPY forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 2.31 percent, median plus 3.14 percent, standard deviation 7.23 percent, percent negative 29.57 percent across 8,494 trading days. The signal’s primary target is silver forward returns.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elevated positioning | +1 | 14.5% (1311 d) | +3.94% | +2.84pp | Oct 2025, Aug 2025, Jul 2025 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 71.0% (6407 d) | +0.91% | -0.20pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Sep 2026 | |
| Washed out | -1 | 14.5% (1306 d) | -0.83% | -1.94pp | Oct 2026, Sep 2026, Aug 2026 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d COMEX SI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day COMEX SI is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Speculator positioning in silver carries directional force. When managed-money traders accumulate long positions in COMEX silver futures, speculative demand drives silver higher on multi-month horizons. When positioning collapses, silver underperforms. The engine reads weekly CFTC DCOT managed-money net-long data, forward-fills daily between Friday releases, z-scores on a rolling window, and bounds through tanh.
Why it matters
Silver is a smaller, more retail-and-speculator-driven market than gold. Managed-money positioning captures the dominant price-mover category in silver on multi-week horizons.
Phase +1 elevated has delivered plus 3.94 percent mean fwd 60d versus Phase -1 washed-out minus 0.83 percent. Use as momentum-continuation filter paired with cross-metal and macro signals.
2011 demonstrates: positioning worked all the way up to 50 dollars then reversed violently. Pair with cross-metal ratio signals (the Gold-Silver Ratio signal) to identify when positioning is extended at ratio extremes.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 08:49 AM ET