PA · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z11177 – PA COT Index Extreme Contrarian
Fills Q&A PM-POS-3 (Critical). Extreme positioning historically precedes mean reversion. 2015-2020 QE-taper era broke the pattern (positioning followed price rather than led reversal), so signal is SP
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.865
PA COT Index Extreme Contrarian composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Crowded Short
12 trading days in current state
Phase
HEALTHY
Positive equals crowded short contrarian; negative equals crowded long contrarian
Sample
18 years
Live since 2008-08
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Fills Q&A PM-POS-3 (Critical). Extreme positioning historically precedes mean reversion. 2015-2020 QE-taper era broke the pattern (positioning followed price rather than led reversal), so signal is SPECIALTY and regime-conditional. Multi-portfolio: same construction applies to SI/PL/PA (the data source has all four). The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 18 years Phase +1 crowded short contrarian state has returned on average minus 3.38 percent forward 60-day palladium return. Phase -1 crowded long contrarian state has returned on average plus 3.04 percent. Today the composite reads , in territory.
LIVE CHART
PA COT Index Extreme Contrarian: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks crowded long contrarian regime. The pale green band marks crowded short contrarian regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is NYMEX palladium continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.865 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.96 percent)
SAMPLE N
4,591 days
TODAY'S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Crowded Short
STATE AND HISTORY
. Sample N=4,591 days since 2008-08.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Fills Q&A PM-POS-3 (Critical). Extreme positioning historically precedes mean reversion. 2015-2020 QE-taper era broke the pattern (positioning followed price rather than led reversal), so signal is SPECIALTY and regime-conditional. Multi-portfolio: same construction applies to SI
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.865 placing the dot inside the Crowded Short band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day palladium returns and sample share
Baseline palladium forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.96 percent, median plus 2.29 percent, across 4,531 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crowded short contrarian TODAY | +1 | 40.4% (1856 d) | +0.18% | -1.77pp | Oct 2026, Apr 2025, Mar 2025 | |
| Normal | 0 | 31.0% (1424 d) | +3.58% | +1.63pp | Jun 2026, Aug 2025, May 2025 | |
| Crowded long contrarian | -1 | 28.6% (1311 d) | +2.74% | +0.79pp | Sep 2025, Jul 2025, Oct 2024 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Fills Q&A PM-POS-3 (Critical). Extreme positioning historically precedes mean reversion. 2015-2020 QE-taper era broke the pattern (positioning followed price rather than led reversal), so signal is SPECIALTY and regime-conditional. Multi-portfolio: same construction applies to SI/PL/PA (the data source has all four). The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
Fills Q&A PM-POS-3 (Critical). Extreme positioning historically precedes mean reversion. 2015-2020 QE-taper era broke the pattern (positioning followed price rather than led reversal), so signal is SPECIALTY and regime-conditional. Multi-portfolio: same construction applies to SI/PL/PA (the data source has all four).
The signal flags the current palladium regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 18 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 08:38 PM ET