SI · Metals / Cross-Metal Ratio 4-Regime
Z11479 – SI Silver GC-SI Ratio Regime
Four-regime classifier on the gold-silver ratio captures a V-shape pattern where the compressed middle regime underperforms and elevated-ratio regimes deliver above-baseline silver forward returns.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.135
4-regime GC-SI ratio classifier, tanh-bounded
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Signal state
Unknown
249 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
0 compressed; 1-3 progressively more elevated ratio
Sample
34 years
Daily gold-silver ratio since November 1992
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The gold-silver ratio carries different information at different levels. A ratio near its 20-year median reflects normal cross-metal conditions. A ratio in elevated regimes (above the 70th percentile) reflects silver-cheap structural conditions. This signal classifies the daily ratio into four regimes using 20-year percentile thresholds and bounds the composite through tanh. The state-conditional pattern is V-shaped: Phase 0 compressed-ratio regime delivers minus 0.57 percent fwd 60-day silver versus baseline plus 1.20 percent, while Phases 1, 2, 3 elevated-ratio regimes deliver plus 2.36, plus 3.42, and plus 2.91 percent respectively. On March 19 2020 the composite reached its series maximum plus 0.9994 during the COVID ratio spike. On February 6 1998 the composite reached its series minimum minus 0.9993 in a compressed-ratio window. Today the composite reads -0.135, in Unknown territory.
LIVE CHART
Thirty-three years of GC over SI price ratio, Z-scored against the trailing five-year baseline, bounded by tanh.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band at the top marks elevated-ratio regime (Phases 1, 2, 3 of the 4-regime classifier). The pale green band at the bottom marks compressed-ratio regime (Phase 0). The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX SI continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.389 / tanh
STATE
Unknown
PHASE
0
FWD 60d
+3.30% (baseline +2.32%)
SAMPLE N
8,517 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
UNKNOWN
STATE AND HISTORY
Unknown, 249 trading days in state. The composite at -0.135 is near the historical median after moderating from the recent extreme.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Silver has partially caught up against gold through 2025-2026 as industrial demand (solar PV, EV battery alloys, electronics) absorbed inventory while gold rallied on central-bank-driven flow. The trailing 5 year baseline still anchors partially on the 2022-2024 silver-compression peaks.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a long-horizon mean-reversion lens with strongest edge at 252 day horizons. In the current CB-driven gold bull regime, the classical mean-reversion mechanism has been partially disrupted. Readers should pair with COMEX silver inventory signals and LBMA silver vault flow signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.135 placing the dot inside the Unknown band. Watch for regime transitions between compressed and elevated bands as the primary signal.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Daily GC-SI ratio Gold close divided by silver close.
- 20-year percentile classifier Maps ratio to 4 discrete regime bands.
- Market phase direction Current regime; 0 is compressed, 1-3 are elevated.
THE REGIME MAP
The five regime states, forward returns and sample share
Behavior across the five states computed from 8,411 SPY-conditional trading days (1992-2026 where SPY fwd 60d is observable). Baseline SPY forward 60 day return (unconditional) is plus 2.32 percent, median plus 3.14 percent, standard deviation 7.25 percent, percent negative 29.7 percent. The signal’s primary target is silver forward returns, not SPY; state-conditional stats on SPY are shown here for consistency with other brief pages, with silver-specific IC noted separately.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elevated ratio | +1 | 38.8% (3310 d) | +3.09% | +1.89pp | Oct 2025, Oct 2025, Sep 2025 | |
| Compressed | 0 | 11.5% (978 d) | +2.36% | +1.16pp | Oct 2025, Oct 2025, Oct 2025 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
What this measures
Gold-silver ratio classified into four discrete regimes based on 20-year percentile bands. Phase 0 is the compressed-ratio regime (silver expensive); Phases 1, 2, 3 are progressively more extended ratio regimes (silver cheap at structural levels). The engine reads the daily GC-SI ratio, assigns to a regime, and bounds the composite through tanh.
Why it matters
Unlike a continuous z-score, the 4-regime classifier isolates discrete band transitions. The V-shape state-conditional pattern reveals that the compressed-middle regime (Phase 0) underperforms while all three elevated regimes outperform.
Phase 1, 2, 3 all deliver above-baseline silver forward returns. Phase 0 compressed underperforms. Pair with the Gold-Silver Ratio signal continuous ratio for crisp regime-transition detection.
The 4-state engine identifies regime variation inside the elevated-ratio band (Phases 1 vs 2 vs 3). the Gold-Silver Ratio signal and the Gold-Silver Extreme Regime signal collapse this to a single elevated band. Pair to see when sub-regime variation matters.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 10:54 AM ET