SI · Metals / Cross-Metal Ratio Regime
Z6909 – SI Silver Gold-Silver Extreme Regime
Gold-silver ratio in its 20-year percentile-extreme band flags structural silver regimes; top-decile ratio readings capture multi-month silver-cheap setups with 97 basis-point forward edge.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.570
Gold-silver ratio 20-year percentile band, tanh-bounded
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Signal state
Extreme POS
12 trading days in current state
Phase
HEALTHY
Positive equals extreme ratio; negative equals compressed
Sample
34 years
Daily gold-silver ratio since May 1992
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The gold-silver ratio has a 20-year moving percentile distribution. When the ratio reaches its top decile (above the 90th percentile of the trailing 20 years), silver is historically cheap relative to gold at a structural level. When the ratio drops to its bottom decile, silver is structurally expensive. This signal classifies the daily ratio against its 20-year percentile and bounds the result through tanh. Top decile fires positive composite. The signal captures broad regime bands rather than continuous mean-reversion. On January 26 1996 the composite reached its series maximum plus 0.7616 during the 1990s silver bear window. On August 5 1999 the composite reached its series minimum minus 0.7600 during the Washington Agreement sell-off. Phase +1 extreme-ratio captures 63 percent of sample and has delivered plus 2.14 percent mean forward 60-day silver return versus Phase -1 compressed-ratio minus 0.38 percent. Today the composite reads +0.570, in Extreme POS territory.
LIVE CHART
Thirty-four years of GC over SI, classified by trailing 20 year percentile position.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band at the top marks extreme-ratio regime (silver-cheap). The pale green band at the bottom marks compressed-ratio regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX SI continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.445 / tanh
STATE
Moderate Pos
PHASE
+1
FWD 60d
+3.74% (baseline +2.32%)
SAMPLE N
9,016 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Extreme POS. The composite at +0.570 reflects a current GC over SI ratio in the 85 to 95 range, which sits above the trailing 20 year median around 70 to 1 but is less extreme than the 2017-20 or 2020 COVID peaks.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Silver partially caught up against gold through 2025-2026 (silver from 32 dollars per ounce to 42, gold from 2,600 to 3,400) but the ratio has not fully normalized back toward the 20 year median. The percentile view registers the current ratio as moderately above baseline.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a long-horizon structural lens. Readers interpreting silver fundamentals should use this reading as a baseline context for the ratio’s position, pair with the Z-score companion signal for the responsive-adaptive view, and pair with physical-market signals (COMEX silver registered inventory, LBMA silver vault flow) for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.570 placing the dot inside the Extreme POS band. Daily ratio update against 20-year percentile.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Daily gold-silver ratio GC close divided by SI close.
- 20-year rolling percentile Classifies current ratio against trailing 20-year distribution.
- Market phase direction Direction of current state run.
THE REGIME MAP
The five regime states, forward returns and sample share
Baseline SPY forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 2.31 percent, median plus 3.14 percent, standard deviation 7.23 percent, percent negative 29.57 percent (n equals 8,494). The signal’s primary target is silver forward returns; state-conditional stats on SPY are shown for consistency with other brief pages.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme ratio TODAY | +1 | 63.4% (5494 d) | +2.14% | +0.97pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Jul 2024 | |
| Normal | 0 | 30.0% (2603 d) | -0.57% | -1.74pp | Oct 2026, Nov 2025, Jul 2024 | |
| Compressed ratio | -1 | 6.5% (566 d) | -0.38% | -1.54pp | Mar 2001, Mar 2001, Mar 2001 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d COMEX SI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/28/2024 | 11/26/2025 | 273d | +3.19% |
| Normal | 11/28/2025 | 10/13/2026 | 219d | +0.86% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/14/2026 | 10/19/2026 | 4d | |
| Normal | 10/20/2026 | 10/20/2026 | 1d | |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/21/2026 | 10/26/2026 | 4d |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day COMEX SI is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The gold-silver ratio in its top-decile 20-year percentile captures structural silver-cheap regimes. The engine classifies the daily gold-silver ratio against a 20-year rolling percentile distribution. Top-decile (above the 90th percentile) reads positive composite; bottom-decile reads negative. Discrete regime detector complementing the continuous z-score mean-reversion signal.
Why it matters
Z-score mean-reversion catches local extremes but percentile-based classification identifies broader structural regimes. Top-decile ratio bands have historically been multi-year silver-bear windows that eventually reverse.
Phase +1 extreme-ratio has delivered plus 2.14 percent mean fwd 60d. Pair with the Gold-Silver Ratio z-score signal for continuous-plus-discrete regime view.
The 1990s silver bear sat in top-decile extreme ratio for years without full reversion. Pair with CFTC positioning and macro catalysts to time regime inflections.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 08:58 AM ET