PL · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z1435 – PL WPIC Deficit Regime
WPIC is the canonical authoritative source for global platinum S/D. The balance metric directly measures stock drawdown vs build. 2015-2026 archetypes: 2021/2022 surpluses (PL price weakness) -> 2023/
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.856
PL WPIC Deficit Regime composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Extreme Deficit Regime
654 trading days in current state
Phase
HEALTHY
Positive equals platinum supply deficit; negative equals platinum supply surplus
Sample
36 years
Live since 1990-12
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
WPIC is the canonical authoritative source for global platinum S/D. The balance metric directly measures stock drawdown vs build. 2015-2026 archetypes: 2021/2022 surpluses (PL price weakness) -> 2023/2024/2025 sustained deficits >1000 koz (PL bullish setup). Addresses PL-FUN-1/-2/-3/-4/-5 STRONG_INCOMPLETE Q# tickets all currently price-only. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 36 years Phase +1 platinum supply deficit state has returned on average plus 2.77 percent forward 60-day platinum return. Phase -1 platinum supply surplus state has returned on average minus 0.39 percent. Today the composite reads +0.856, in Extreme Deficit Regime territory.
LIVE CHART
PL WPIC Deficit Regime: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks platinum supply surplus regime. The pale green band marks platinum supply deficit regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is NYMEX platinum continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.856 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.85 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,020 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Deficit Regime
STATE AND HISTORY
Extreme Deficit Regime. Sample N=9,020 days since 1990-12.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
WPIC is the canonical authoritative source for global platinum S/D. The balance metric directly measures stock drawdown vs build. 2015-2026 archetypes: 2021/2022 surpluses (PL price weakness) -> 2023/2024/2025 sustained deficits >1000 koz (PL bullish setup). Addresses PL-FUN-1/-2
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.856 placing the dot inside the Extreme Deficit Regime band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day platinum returns and sample share
Baseline platinum forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.85 percent, median plus 0.18 percent, across 2,103 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platinum supply deficit TODAY | +1 | 41.9% (907 d) | +2.77% | +0.92pp | Apr 2024, Mar 2021 | |
| Normal | 0 | 11.7% (252 d) | +7.71% | +5.85pp | Mar 2020 | |
| Platinum supply surplus | -1 | 46.4% (1004 d) | -0.39% | -2.24pp | Mar 2022, Apr 2018 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
WPIC is the canonical authoritative source for global platinum S/D. The balance metric directly measures stock drawdown vs build. 2015-2026 archetypes: 2021/2022 surpluses (PL price weakness) -> 2023/2024/2025 sustained deficits >1000 koz (PL bullish setup). Addresses PL-FUN-1/-2/-3/-4/-5 STRONG_INCOMPLETE Q# tickets all currently price-only. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
WPIC is the canonical authoritative source for global platinum S/D. The balance metric directly measures stock drawdown vs build. 2015-2026 archetypes: 2021/2022 surpluses (PL price weakness) -> 2023/2024/2025 sustained deficits >1000 koz (PL bullish setup). Addresses PL-FUN-1/-2/-3/-4/-5 STRONG_INCOMPLETE Q# tickets all currently price-only.
The signal flags the current platinum regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 36 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 05:26 PM ET