PA · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z32357 – PA CFTC Net Spec Z-Score
Spec positioning extremes are documented 60- contrarian indicators across commodity markets.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.693
PA CFTC Net Spec Z-Score composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Moderate NEG
18 trading days in current state
Phase
STRESS
Positive equals crowded long specs; negative equals crowded short specs
Sample
14 years
Live since 2012-01
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Spec positioning extremes are documented 60- contrarian indicators across commodity markets. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 14 years Phase +1 crowded long specs state has returned on average plus 1.55 percent forward 60-day palladium return. Phase -1 crowded short specs state has returned on average plus 0.84 percent. Today the composite reads , in territory.
LIVE CHART
PA CFTC Net Spec Z-Score: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks crowded short specs regime. The pale green band marks crowded long specs regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is NYMEX palladium continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.693 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.82 percent)
SAMPLE N
3,729 days
TODAY'S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
. Sample N=3,729 days since 2012-01.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Spec positioning extremes are documented 60- contrarian indicators across commodity markets.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.693 placing the dot inside the Moderate NEG band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day palladium returns and sample share
Baseline palladium forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.82 percent, median plus 1.79 percent, across 3,669 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crowded long specs | +1 | 30.8% (1147 d) | +2.37% | +0.55pp | Jun 2025, Oct 2024, Feb 2018 | |
| Normal | 0 | 13.3% (496 d) | +2.42% | +0.60pp | Sep 2026, May 2025, Apr 2025 | |
| Crowded short specs TODAY | -1 | 55.9% (2086 d) | +1.38% | -0.44pp | Oct 2026, Apr 2025, Feb 2025 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Spec positioning extremes are documented 60- contrarian indicators across commodity markets. The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
Spec positioning extremes are documented 60- contrarian indicators across commodity markets.
The signal flags the current palladium regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 14 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 08:37 PM ET