PL · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z32362 – PL US Mint Retail Demand Z
Retail-mint demand is a documented contrarian indicator at 60-90d.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.320
PL US Mint Retail Demand Z composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Moderate NEG
894 trading days in current state
Phase
STRESS
Positive equals retail coin demand surge; negative equals retail coin demand weak
Sample
13 years
Live since 2013-01
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Retail-mint demand is a documented contrarian indicator at 60-90d. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 13 years Phase +1 retail coin demand surge state has returned on average minus 4.13 percent forward 60-day platinum return. Phase -1 retail coin demand weak state has returned on average plus 1.80 percent. Today the composite reads -0.320, in Moderate NEG territory.
LIVE CHART
PL US Mint Retail Demand Z: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks retail coin demand weak regime. The pale green band marks retail coin demand surge regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is NYMEX platinum continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.320 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +0.63 percent)
SAMPLE N
3,477 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Moderate NEG. Sample N=3,477 days since 2013-01.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Retail-mint demand is a documented contrarian indicator at 60-90d.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.320 placing the dot inside the Moderate NEG band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day platinum returns and sample share
Baseline platinum forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 0.63 percent, median minus 0.66 percent, across 3,417 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail coin demand surge | +1 | 15.8% (548 d) | -4.97% | -5.60pp | Mar 2021, Jan 2020, Apr 2019 | |
| Normal | 0 | 15.1% (525 d) | -1.62% | -2.26pp | Mar 2023, Apr 2020, Feb 2019 | |
| Retail coin demand weak TODAY | -1 | 69.1% (2404 d) | +2.45% | +1.82pp | Apr 2023, Jun 2022, May 2020 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Retail-mint demand is a documented contrarian indicator at 60-90d. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
Retail-mint demand is a documented contrarian indicator at 60-90d.
The signal flags the current platinum regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 13 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 05:26 PM ET