PL · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z32424 – PL US HS7110 PT Imports Z
Physical import flows are end-buyer revealed-preference signals that lead spot price by 1-3 months.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.969
PL US HS7110 PT Imports Z composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Extreme POS
68 trading days in current state
Phase
HEALTHY
Positive equals us pt imports surging; negative equals us pt imports weak
Sample
14 years
Live since 2012-01
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Physical import flows are end-buyer revealed-preference signals that lead spot price by 1-3 months. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 14 years Phase +1 us pt imports surging state has returned on average minus 1.58 percent forward 60-day platinum return. Phase -1 us pt imports weak state has returned on average plus 0.57 percent. Today the composite reads +0.969, in Extreme POS territory.
LIVE CHART
PL US HS7110 PT Imports Z: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks us pt imports weak regime. The pale green band marks us pt imports surging regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is NYMEX platinum continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.969 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +0.61 percent)
SAMPLE N
3,729 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Extreme POS. Sample N=3,729 days since 2012-01.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Physical import flows are end-buyer revealed-preference signals that lead spot price by 1-3 months.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.969 placing the dot inside the Extreme POS band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day platinum returns and sample share
Baseline platinum forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 0.61 percent, median minus 0.64 percent, across 3,669 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US PT imports surging TODAY | +1 | 39.0% (1453 d) | -1.69% | -2.30pp | Aug 2026, Oct 2022, Feb 2022 | |
| Normal | 0 | 20.9% (778 d) | +3.88% | +3.26pp | Jun 2026, Feb 2025, Oct 2024 | |
| US PT imports weak | -1 | 40.2% (1498 d) | +1.06% | +0.45pp | Aug 2025, Nov 2024, Mar 2023 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Physical import flows are end-buyer revealed-preference signals that lead spot price by 1-3 months. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
Physical import flows are end-buyer revealed-preference signals that lead spot price by 1-3 months.
The signal flags the current platinum regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 14 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 05:27 PM ET