PL · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z5625 – PL Realized Vol Moderate Regime Gate
Truth PL_T006 documents PL as having a ‘moderate’ 20-30% realized-vol regime that holds in ~60% of weeks. When PL sits inside this band, macro overlays (DXY, CPI, credit) transmit at their designed ma
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.142
PL Realized Vol Moderate Regime Gate composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Regime Transition
36 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals moderate vol regime; negative equals extreme vol regime
Sample
35 years
Live since 1991-12
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Truth PL_T006 documents PL as having a ‘moderate’ 20-30% realized-vol regime that holds in ~60% of weeks. When PL sits inside this band, macro overlays (DXY, CPI, credit) transmit at their designed magnitudes. Outside the band, either dormancy or blow-out makes the same macro signals unreliable. This dial gates downstream macro Z weight in the PL Y-composite. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 35 years Phase +1 moderate vol regime state has returned on average plus 9.13 percent forward 60-day platinum return. Phase -1 extreme vol regime state has returned on average plus 0.94 percent. Today the composite reads +0.142, in Regime Transition territory.
LIVE CHART
PL Realized Vol Moderate Regime Gate: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks extreme vol regime regime. The pale green band marks moderate vol regime regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is NYMEX platinum continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.142 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.08 percent)
SAMPLE N
8,767 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Regime Transition
STATE AND HISTORY
Regime Transition. Sample N=8,767 days since 1991-12.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Truth PL_T006 documents PL as having a ‘moderate’ 20-30% realized-vol regime that holds in ~60% of weeks. When PL sits inside this band, macro overlays (DXY, CPI, credit) transmit at their designed magnitudes. Outside the band, either dormancy or blow-out makes the same macro sig
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.142 placing the dot inside the Regime Transition band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day platinum returns and sample share
Baseline platinum forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.08 percent, median plus 0.91 percent, across 8,707 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moderate vol regime | +1 | 2.9% (258 d) | +9.13% | +8.05pp | Dec 2025, Oct 2025, Sep 2025 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 46.6% (4088 d) | +0.72% | -0.36pp | Sep 2026, Jul 2026, Jun 2026 | |
| Extreme vol regime | -1 | 50.4% (4421 d) | +0.94% | -0.14pp | Sep 2026, Jul 2026, Jun 2026 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Truth PL_T006 documents PL as having a ‘moderate’ 20-30% realized-vol regime that holds in ~60% of weeks. When PL sits inside this band, macro overlays (DXY, CPI, credit) transmit at their designed magnitudes. Outside the band, either dormancy or blow-out makes the same macro signals unreliable. This dial gates downstream macro Z weight in the PL Y-composite. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
Truth PL_T006 documents PL as having a ‘moderate’ 20-30% realized-vol regime that holds in ~60% of weeks. When PL sits inside this band, macro overlays (DXY, CPI, credit) transmit at their designed magnitudes. Outside the band, either dormancy or blow-out makes the same macro signals unreliable. This dial gates downstream macro Z weight in the PL Y-composite.
The signal flags the current platinum regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 35 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 05:27 PM ET