SI · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z5727 – SI Silver-Inflation Coherence Trend
Silver-to-inflation coupling shifts regime over multi-year horizons; the trend in cross-asset coherence captures when silver returns to or decouples from inflation-hedge behavior with 193 basis-point state-conditional edge.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.862
Silver-inflation coherence trend z, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Coherence Weakening
365 trading days in current state
Phase
STRESS
Positive equals coherence strengthening; negative equals weakening
Sample
23 years
Live since January 2003
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Silver is widely treated as an inflation hedge but the actual coupling to realized inflation signals waxes and wanes across market regimes. The 2010s saw silver decouple from inflation expectations; the 2020s saw strong recoupling. This signal measures the TREND in that coupling using wavelet coherence at the 170-day cycle band. On February 23 2009 the composite reached its series maximum plus 0.993 as coherence strengthened into the early-QE inflation regime. On June 23 2015 the composite reached its series minimum minus 0.995 during the dollar-strength decoupling window. Across 23 years Phase -1 weakening-coherence state has delivered plus 2.39 percent mean forward 60-day silver return versus Phase +1 strengthening +1.75 percent, a counter-intuitive pattern where decoupling delivers stronger returns than recoupling. Today the composite reads -0.862, in Coherence Weakening territory.
LIVE CHART
Thirty-six years of GC over SI, Z-scored against the trailing five-year baseline, bounded by tanh.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band at the top marks coherence-strengthening regime. The pale green band at the bottom marks coherence-weakening regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX SI continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.600 / tanh
STATE
Moderate Neg
PHASE
-1
FWD 60d
+4.09% (baseline +2.32%)
SAMPLE N
9,016 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Coherence Weakening
STATE AND HISTORY
Coherence Weakening. The composite is reading sustained negative-Z territory as silver’s partial catch-up against gold through 2025-2026 brings the ratio down against a 5 year baseline that still anchors on the 2022-2024 compression peaks.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
The 1,260 day rolling baseline has not yet rolled off the 2022-2024 peak-compression window. As those peak-compression days drop out through 2027, the baseline will normalize downward and the Z-score will drift back toward zero even without further ratio changes.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a fast-reacting Z-score framing with saturation sensitivity. Readers should pair with the 20 year percentile companion signal (which reads the current ratio as moderately above baseline on the longer historical view) and physical-market silver signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.862 placing the dot inside the Coherence Weakening band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The five regime states, forward returns and sample share
Baseline SPY forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 2.31 percent, median plus 3.14 percent, standard deviation 7.23 percent, percent negative 29.57 percent across 8,494 trading days. The signal’s primary target is silver forward returns.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strengthening coherence | +1 | 55.4% (3317 d) | +1.75% | -0.01pp | Apr 2025, Aug 2024, Apr 2024 | |
| Normal | 0 | 13.7% (819 d) | +0.46% | -1.31pp | Mar 2025, Nov 2024, Jun 2024 | |
| Weakening coherence TODAY | -1 | 31.0% (1856 d) | +2.39% | +0.62pp | May 2025, Dec 2024, Oct 2024 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d COMEX SI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day COMEX SI is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Silver has been an inflation hedge for most of modern history but the coupling to realized inflation signals waxes and wanes. The engine computes wavelet coherence between silver returns and 10-year inflation breakevens at approximately 170-day cycles, takes 5-year rolling first-difference to extract the strengthening or weakening TREND, and bounds through tanh. Positive composite means silver coherence with inflation is strengthening; negative means decoupling.
Why it matters
Silver inflation-hedge behavior is not constant. In some decades silver tracks realized inflation closely; in others decoupling dominates. The coherence-trend captures the transition.
Counter-intuitively Phase -1 (weakening coherence) has delivered stronger forward silver returns. When silver decouples from inflation, other drivers take over.
Different coherence windows produce different trend readings. The 170-day band and 5-year rolling difference are specific choices; other choices would give different regime assignments.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 11:35 AM ET