SI · Metals / Cross-Metal Ratio Short Window
Z6901 – SI Silver Gold-Silver Ratio (Short Window)
Shorter-window variant of the gold-silver ratio captures faster regime shifts; 248 basis-point edge on forward 60-day silver returns with earlier regime-transition detection than the longer-window sibling.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.495
Shorter-window GC-SI ratio z-score, tanh-bounded
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Signal state
Moderate POS
7 trading days in current state
Phase
HEALTHY
Positive equals silver cheap; negative equals silver expensive
Sample
36 years
Daily GC-SI ratio since November 1990
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The gold-silver ratio exhibits mean-reversion on multi-horizon windows. The standard 5-year window (the long-window Gold-Silver Ratio signal) catches structural regime shifts. This shorter-window variant catches tactical regime transitions days-to-weeks earlier at the cost of more noise. The engine reads daily GC-SI ratio, z-scores on a shorter rolling window, and bounds through tanh. Phase +1 silver-cheap state has delivered plus 1.81 percent mean forward 60-day silver return versus Phase -1 silver-expensive minus 0.67 percent, a 248 basis-point edge. On July 8 1993 the composite reached its series maximum plus 0.9951. On January 16 1997 the composite reached its series minimum minus 0.9951. Today the composite reads +0.495, in Moderate POS territory.
LIVE CHART
Thirty-six years of the gold-over-silver ratio mean-reversion lens.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. Pale red marks silver-cheap regime; pale green marks silver-expensive regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX SI continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.191 / tanh
STATE
Normal
PHASE
0
FWD 60d
+1.79% (baseline +2.32%)
SAMPLE N
9,016 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Pos
STATE AND PERCENTILE
Moderate POS, 7 trading days in state. The reading is in the bottom third of the historical distribution.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
The gold-silver ratio has compressed from its 2024-25 highs as silver participated more aggressively in the H1 2026 precious-metals rally. Silver has rallied harder than gold at the margin, which the ratio reads as compression.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a mean-reversion lens, not a tactical trigger. The three signature extreme-pos entries (silver-cheap peaks in 2003, 2008, 2020) delivered median plus 35 percent silver forward 252-day returns. Today’s reading is NOT in extreme-pos state; the mean-reversion setup is not currently firing.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.495 placing the dot inside the Moderate POS band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Daily GC-SI ratio Gold close divided by silver close.
- Shorter-window z-score Standardizes against trailing baseline.
- Market phase direction Current regime phase.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime states, forward returns and sample share
Behavior across the three states computed from 9,016 trading days (1990-11-30 through 2026-10-26) with SPY-conditional statistics against the 8,411 valid observations. Baseline SPY forward-60-day return (unconditional): plus 2.32 percent, median plus 3.14 percent, standard deviation 7.25 percent, percent negative 29.7 percent. Phase imbalance is heavy to phase plus one (68.8 percent of sample).
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silver cheap TODAY | +1 | 68.8% (6207 d) | +1.81% | +0.70pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2025, Oct 2025 | |
| Normal | 0 | 10.5% (947 d) | -0.09% | -1.20pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Jul 2026 | |
| Silver expensive | -1 | 20.7% (1870 d) | -0.67% | -1.77pp | Oct 2026, Aug 2026, Jul 2026 |
The historical pattern
Thirty-six years of the gold-over-silver ratio mean-reversion lens
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
Compressed state transitions over the recent window. Full history (hundreds of transitions since 11/30/1990) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d COMEX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme Pos (silver Cheap, Mean Reversion Bullish) | 10/28/2024 | 09/25/2025 | 229d | +3.19% |
| Normal | 09/26/2025 | 09/26/2025 | 1d | +3.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Cheap, Mean Reversion Bullish) | 09/29/2025 | 10/02/2025 | 4d | +3.66% |
| Normal | 10/03/2025 | 10/03/2025 | 1d | +2.66% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Cheap, Mean Reversion Bullish) | 10/06/2025 | 10/15/2025 | 8d | +1.54% |
| Normal | 10/16/2025 | 10/16/2025 | 1d | +5.01% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Cheap, Mean Reversion Bullish) | 10/17/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 16d | +3.91% |
| Normal | 11/10/2025 | 11/26/2025 | 13d | +1.35% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Rich) | 11/28/2025 | 07/15/2026 | 156d | +0.86% |
| Normal | 07/16/2026 | 07/17/2026 | 2d | +3.71% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Rich) | 07/20/2026 | 07/27/2026 | 6d | +4.84% |
| Normal | 07/28/2026 | 07/28/2026 | 1d | +4.35% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Rich) | 07/29/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 2d | +4.73% |
| Normal | 07/31/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 1d | +2.46% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Rich) | 08/03/2026 | 10/07/2026 | 47d | |
| Normal | 10/08/2026 | 10/08/2026 | 1d | |
| Extreme Neg (silver Rich) | 10/09/2026 | 10/09/2026 | 1d | |
| Normal | 10/12/2026 | 10/26/2026 | 11d |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day COMEX is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Shorter-window z-score of the gold-silver ratio. Faster-response variant of the long-window mean-reversion signal; catches regime transitions days to weeks earlier but with more noise. Engine reads daily GC-SI ratio, z-scores on a shorter rolling window, and bounds through tanh.
Why it matters
Shorter z-score window captures tactical regime transitions earlier than the long-window sibling at the cost of more noise.
Use both windows together for tactical-plus-structural view of the gold-silver ratio regime.
Shorter-window signals carry more false-positive regime transitions. Pair with long-window for confirmation.
GO DEEPER
Thirty-six years of the oldest trader indicator in precious metals, read as a daily tape for silver.
Brief covers shorter-window methodology distinct from the long-window Gold-Silver Ratio signal long-window, three signature episodes (1993-07 series max, 1997-01 series min, 2020 COVID window), and four caveats on the faster-response variant.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 11:07 AM ET