PL · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z85272 – PL LBMA Vault Gold YoY Z
PGMs benefit from precious-metal backdrop even without industrial theme.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.935
PL LBMA Vault Gold YoY Z composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Extreme POS
632 trading days in current state
Phase
HEALTHY
Positive equals lbma vault gold rising; negative equals lbma vault gold declining
Sample
37 years
Live since 1989-12
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
PGMs benefit from precious-metal backdrop even without industrial theme. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 37 years Phase +1 lbma vault gold rising state has returned on average plus 2.94 percent forward 60-day platinum return. Phase -1 lbma vault gold declining state has returned on average minus 0.39 percent. Today the composite reads +0.935, in Extreme POS territory.
LIVE CHART
PL LBMA Vault Gold YoY Z: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks lbma vault gold declining regime. The pale green band marks lbma vault gold rising regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is NYMEX platinum continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.935 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.57 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,272 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Extreme POS. Sample N=9,272 days since 1989-12.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
PGMs benefit from precious-metal backdrop even without industrial theme.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.935 placing the dot inside the Extreme POS band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day platinum returns and sample share
Baseline platinum forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.57 percent, median minus 0.06 percent, across 2,290 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LBMA vault gold rising TODAY | +1 | 57.2% (1344 d) | +2.94% | +1.36pp | May 2024, Jul 2019, Jul 2017 | |
| Normal | 0 | 6.2% (145 d) | +1.17% | -0.41pp | Dec 2023, Jun 2018 | |
| LBMA vault gold declining | -1 | 36.6% (861 d) | -0.39% | -1.97pp | Jun 2021, Aug 2018 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
PGMs benefit from precious-metal backdrop even without industrial theme. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
PGMs benefit from precious-metal backdrop even without industrial theme.
The signal flags the current platinum regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 37 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 05:26 PM ET