PA · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z85591 – PA GPR Daily Overlay Z
Russia supplies ~40% of world PA. Geopolitical risk = supply premium.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.825
PA GPR Daily Overlay Z composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Moderate NEG
4 trading days in current state
Phase
STRESS
Positive equals elevated gpr daily; negative equals calm gpr daily
Sample
37 years
Live since 1989-12
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Russia supplies ~40% of world PA. Geopolitical risk = supply premium. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 37 years Phase +1 elevated gpr daily state has returned on average plus 0.67 percent forward 60-day palladium return. Phase -1 calm gpr daily state has returned on average plus 1.65 percent. Today the composite reads , in territory.
LIVE CHART
PA GPR Daily Overlay Z: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks calm gpr daily regime. The pale green band marks elevated gpr daily regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is NYMEX palladium continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.825 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.27 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,272 days
TODAY'S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
. Sample N=9,272 days since 1989-12.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Russia supplies ~40% of world PA. Geopolitical risk = supply premium.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.825 placing the dot inside the Moderate NEG band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day palladium returns and sample share
Baseline palladium forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.27 percent, median plus 0.85 percent, across 9,212 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elevated GPR daily | +1 | 43.1% (3999 d) | +0.67% | -0.60pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Oct 2026 | |
| Normal | 0 | 18.3% (1697 d) | +1.87% | +0.61pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Oct 2026 | |
| Calm GPR daily TODAY | -1 | 38.6% (3576 d) | +1.65% | +0.39pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Oct 2026 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Russia supplies ~40% of world PA. Geopolitical risk = supply premium. The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
Russia supplies ~40% of world PA. Geopolitical risk = supply premium.
The signal flags the current palladium regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 37 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 08:40 PM ET