PA · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z96374 – PA LME Nickel Stocks 63d Change
The PA LME Nickel Stocks Change signal captures a distinct palladium market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a -bounded composite between minus one and plus one.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.128
PA LME Nickel Stocks 63d Change composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Normal
101 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals lme ni stocks accumulating; negative equals lme ni stocks drawing
Sample
12 years
Live since 2014-07
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The PA LME Nickel Stocks Change signal captures a distinct palladium market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a -bounded composite between minus one and plus one. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through. Across 12 years Phase +1 lme ni stocks accumulating state has returned on average plus 0.93 percent forward 60-day palladium return. Phase -1 lme ni stocks drawing state has returned on average plus 2.89 percent. Today the composite reads , in territory.
LIVE CHART
PA LME Nickel Stocks 63d Change: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks lme ni stocks drawing regime. The pale green band marks lme ni stocks accumulating regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is NYMEX palladium continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.128 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +2.93 percent)
SAMPLE N
3,104 days
TODAY'S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
. Sample N=3,104 days since 2014-07.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
The PA LME Nickel Stocks Change signal captures a distinct palladium market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a -bounded composite between minus one and plus one.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.128 placing the dot inside the Normal band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day palladium returns and sample share
Baseline palladium forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 2.93 percent, median plus 3.59 percent, across 3,044 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LME Ni stocks accumulating | +1 | 34.7% (1076 d) | +4.73% | +1.80pp | Aug 2025, Aug 2025, Aug 2025 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 33.7% (1046 d) | +2.42% | -0.51pp | Jun 2026, May 2026, May 2026 | |
| LME Ni stocks drawing | -1 | 31.6% (982 d) | +1.47% | -1.46pp | May 2026, May 2026, May 2026 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The PA LME Nickel Stocks Change signal captures a distinct palladium market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a -bounded composite between minus one and plus one. The composite is z-scored against a and bounded through.
Why it matters
The PA LME Nickel Stocks Change signal captures a distinct palladium market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a -bounded composite between minus one and plus one.
The signal flags the current palladium regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 12 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 08:39 PM ET