PL · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z99017 – PL LBMA PMAM Reversal
Sustained divergence between London morning and afternoon fixes measures session-imbalance in physical PL demand. Empirical: persistent afternoon premium (PM>AM) exhausts and mean-reverts over 20-40 d
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.401
PL LBMA PMAM Reversal composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Mild Short
31 trading days in current state
Phase
STRESS
Positive equals pmam reversal active; negative equals pmam reversal quiescent
Sample
37 years
Live since 1989-03
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Sustained divergence between London morning and afternoon fixes measures session-imbalance in physical PL demand. Empirical: persistent afternoon premium (PM>AM) exhausts and mean-reverts over 20-40 days. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 37 years Phase +1 pmam reversal active state has returned on average plus 1.58 percent forward 60-day platinum return. Phase -1 pmam reversal quiescent state has returned on average minus 0.86 percent. Today the composite reads -0.401, in Mild Short territory.
LIVE CHART
PL LBMA PMAM Reversal: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks pmam reversal quiescent regime. The pale green band marks pmam reversal active regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is NYMEX platinum continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.401 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +0.89 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,461 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Mild Short
STATE AND HISTORY
Mild Short. Sample N=9,461 days since 1989-03.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Sustained divergence between London morning and afternoon fixes measures session-imbalance in physical PL demand. Empirical: persistent afternoon premium (PM>AM) exhausts and mean-reverts over 20-40 days.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.401 placing the dot inside the Mild Short band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day platinum returns and sample share
Baseline platinum forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 0.89 percent, median plus 0.67 percent, across 9,118 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMAM reversal active | +1 | 22.5% (2062 d) | +1.58% | +0.69pp | Jul 2026, Jun 2026, Mar 2026 | |
| Normal | 0 | 70.3% (6448 d) | +0.84% | -0.05pp | Sep 2026, Sep 2026, Aug 2026 | |
| PMAM reversal quiescent TODAY | -1 | 7.3% (668 d) | -0.86% | -1.75pp | Sep 2026, Sep 2026, Sep 2026 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Sustained divergence between London morning and afternoon fixes measures session-imbalance in physical PL demand. Empirical: persistent afternoon premium (PM>AM) exhausts and mean-reverts over 20-40 days. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
Sustained divergence between London morning and afternoon fixes measures session-imbalance in physical PL demand. Empirical: persistent afternoon premium (PM>AM) exhausts and mean-reverts over 20-40 days.
The signal flags the current platinum regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 37 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 05:28 PM ET