CRUDE OIL SPECIALIST · Energy / Supply Shocks
Z12836 – [CL] Sanctioned Refinery Disruption (AR1-Reduced)
When sanctioned refineries burn AND their tanker arrivals drop simultaneously, real supply disruption is happening. The signal catches the hour-to-hour conjunction.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current composite
-0.017
On the plus-or-minus one tanh scale
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Live year-round on daily cadence.
Signal state
Normal
Current state across the three-state regime machine.
Phase duration
1 sessions
Fresh regime read on November 3, 2026.
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Sanctioned-country refineries (Iran, Venezuela, post-2022 Russia) do not publish operational data. The signal reveals disruptions through two independent satellite streams: NASA FIRMS thermal detection catches fires via infrared imagery, AIS tanker arrival data catches loading drops via maritime vessel tracking. The CONJUNCTION (both firing on the same day) distinguishes real supply disruption from routine flaring or seasonal arrival slowdowns.
State-conditional edges are monotonic on point estimate. Disruption state delivers plus 0.34pp forward 60-day edge above the plus 3.67 percent baseline. Normalizing state delivers minus 1.62pp edge. The signal is a SPARSE EVENT DETECTOR, firing state plus one in short 2-5 session windows on real conjunction days. Historical fires: 2022-03 Ukraine plus 17 percent in 5 sessions, 2018-12 Iran plus 9 percent in 2 sessions.
LIVE CHART
Satellite thermal detection plus AIS tanker arrivals flags sanctioned-country refinery disruption events against WTI forward returns.
What the chart is showing. The dark line in the top panel is the sanctioned-refinery disruption composite on a tanh-bounded plus-or-minus one scale. Positive means sanctioned-refinery supply disruption firing. Negative means supply normalizing. The bronze line in the middle panel is WTI ratio-adjusted continuous. The bottom panel tracks the 252-day rolling IC.
COMPOSITE
-0.017 / tanh
STATE
Normal
PHASE
0
FWD 60d
baseline
SAMPLE N
2,822 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Composite -0.017 (Normal, 1 session). No active sanctioned-refinery disruption firing. The signal spends most days in Neutral and fires state Disruption in SHORT 2-5 session windows when Iran or Venezuela refineries show real fire-plus-loading-drop events.
THE SATELLITE-PLUS-AIS MECHANIC
Sanctioned refineries do not report. Satellite thermal (NASA FIRMS) catches the fire signal. AIS tanker arrivals catch the loading-drop signal. The conjunction (fire above baseline AND arrivals below baseline on the same day) is a real supply disruption.
HOW TO POSITION
The signal is a SPARSE EVENT DETECTOR. State-conditional edges capture the event-day effect. Read alongside the broader supply-shock composite to distinguish specific sanctioned-country events from generic supply pressure.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite tag at the right edge of the top panel is sitting at -0.017, inside the Normal band. The signal spends most days here; the interesting activity shows up as SHARP spikes during event windows.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.017 AR1-reduced tanh-bounded severity-weighted sanctioned-refinery event aggregate. In the Normal band.
- Raw rolling z-score -1.21 Severity-weighted daily aggregate is a quarter standard deviation above the 252-day trailing average.
- Phase run 1 session Fresh Neutral read. State runs are SHORT (typically 2-5 trading sessions during firings).
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
WHAT THE SANCTIONED-REFINERY DETECTOR IS TELLING YOU
The composite reading of -0.017 sits in the Normal band. No active fire-and-loading-drop conjunction firing from Iran or Venezuela sanctioned refineries today. The raw z is -1.21. The sanctioned-refinery supply backdrop is slightly elevated but not firing a tactical bullish-crude signal.
THE CRUDE STACK
This signal is the geopolitical-supply-disruption detector in the crude stack. It fires only on days where both the FIRMS thermal and AIS arrivals channels align on a sanctioned-country refinery. Read alongside the broader supply-shock composite, the macro overlay, the heating-oil positioning, the 20-day momentum, and the CFTC MM positioning signals.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS READING
Two triggers. First, the composite crosses above plus 0.3 (state Disruption). That requires an Iran or Venezuela refinery to show a fire ABOVE its baseline AND arrivals BELOW baseline on the SAME day. Second, the composite drops below minus 0.3 (state Normalizing). That would signal sanctioned refineries recovering throughput.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime states, forward returns and sample share
Behavior across the sanctioned-refinery disruption composite (NYMEX WTI crude benchmark, 2015 through present). WTI crude forward 60-day baseline is plus 3.67 percent across 2,822 live-signal days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normalizing (sanctioned refinery supply recovering) | -1 | 13.6% (385 d) | +2.05% | -1.62pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Oct 2026 | |
| Neutral TODAY | 0 | 74.3% (2098 d) | +3.91% | +0.24pp | Nov 2026, Oct 2026, Oct 2026 | |
| Disruption (sanctioned refinery supply shock) | +1 | 12.0% (339 d) | +4.01% | +0.34pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Oct 2026 |
The historical pattern of sanctioned-refinery disruption events
The signal across 10 years of sanctioned-refinery disruption history
What this measures
Sanctioned-country refineries do not publish operational data. Satellite thermal detection and AIS tanker arrivals together reveal real supply disruption when a fire and an arrivals drop coincide on the same day. The signal severity-weights each event by fire intensity times loading drop magnitude, aggregates daily across all sanctioned refineries, z-scores and tanh-bounds.
Why it matters
Why sanctioned-refinery disruption predicts crude forward returns
Sanctioned-country refineries account for roughly 8-12 percent of global refining capacity (Iran plus Venezuela plus Russia post-2022). When they fail, global product supply tightens. The signal reads this through two independent satellite data streams. NASA FIRMS thermal anomaly feeds catch refinery fires in near-real-time via infrared satellite imagery. AIS tanker arrival data catches loading drops via maritime vessel tracking. The CONJUNCTION distinguishes real supply disruption from routine flaring or seasonal arrival slowdowns.
Why this is the geopolitical-event complement to the broader supply-shock composite
The crude stack reads several structurally-distinct channels. The broader supply-shock composite is a broad average across five channels. This signal is a specific detector for sanctioned-country disruption events. When both fire simultaneously, the stacked bullish-supply read is maximally clean. When the supply-shock composite fires but this signal does not, the supply pressure is coming from drilling or hurricanes or ETF flow, not from sanctioned-country disruption.
How to use this signal today
The composite -0.017 reading is in the Normal band. No active fire-plus-loading-drop conjunction firing today. Watch the daily satellite and AIS refresh for new event spikes. When the signal fires, the bullish-crude bid is EVENT-DRIVEN not headline-driven.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 04:11 PM ET