· Analytic
Z4230 LC Texas Panhandle Rainfall Signal
CHIRPS Texas Panhandle precipitation inverted and z-scored on two years — the regional weather magnitude overlay on CME Live Cattle feedlot throughput.
At a glance
Current reading
-0.338
Wet Panhandle moderate-negative firing
Signal state
Moderate NEG
phase -1, rainfall above 2-year baseline
Sample
Daily CHIRPS, 36-year span
Texas Panhandle precipitation, 1990+
Historical IC
+0.107 (p = 0.0000)
Spearman vs LC fwd60d, significant daily
Baseline LC fwd60d
+1.02%
Unconditional mean, median +1.74%
Wet Panhandle fwd60d
+2.85% mean
+1.83 pp above baseline, 64% hit rate
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
The Texas Panhandle is the largest US cattle feedlot region, housing roughly 25 percent of national on-feed inventory. Precipitation conditions in the Panhandle affect feedlot operations directly (mud, water availability, pen conditions) and indirectly (regional pasture quality drives placement timing). Weather extremes in either direction have historically preceded Live Cattle strength through supply-pipeline disruption.This signal reads CHIRPS satellite precipitation data over the Texas Panhandle cattle-feedlot region, SIGN-FLIPS (dry conditions read positive composite), z-scores on a 504-day rolling window with 60-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds at plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Daily CHIRPS release cadence. Dry Panhandle (positive composite) means precipitation is deeply below the 2-year baseline. Drought forces cattle off pasture into feedlots, compressing the near-term feeder-cattle supply pipeline. Historically bullish LC forward. Wet Panhandle (negative composite) means rainfall is well above baseline. Pasture conditions improve, holding cattle out of feedlots. The near-term supply pipeline tightens via retention. Historically ALSO bullish LC forward — weather extremes in either direction tighten forward supply. The memorable finding: this is a MAGNITUDE-not-direction signal. Phase +1 (Dry) delivers +2.56% fwd60d (+1.54 pp edge, hit 62%+). Phase -1 (Wet) delivers +2.85% fwd60d (+1.83 pp edge, hit 64%+). Phase 0 (Normal) delivers -0.18% fwd60d (-1.20 pp below baseline). Daily IC +0.107 at p=0.0000 is significant daily. Grade B regional weather magnitude overlay. Current reading: Wet Panhandle moderate-negative at composite -0.338. Panhandle rainfall is above the 2-year baseline. Historical Phase -1 delivers +1.83 pp above baseline. Read on for the current reading, the historical anchor cases, and how to pair with the LC fundamental stack.
LIVE CHART
LC Texas Panhandle Rainfall Signal
Composite reads -0.338 as of October 30, 2026, in the Wet Panhandle moderate-negative band. CHIRPS Texas Panhandle precipitation is above the 2-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range.
COMPOSITE
-0.338 / tanh
STATE
Wet Panhandle
PHASE
-1
FWD 60d
+2.85% (baseline +1.02%)
SAMPLE N
9,049 days
STATE-CONDITIONAL EDGE
Forward 60-day returns by state
FORWARD 60-DAY RETURNS BY STATE
Mean forward-60-day benchmark return per composite state. Baseline (horizontal line) is the unconditional sample mean. Bars above the line are the constructive bands; bars below are the bearish bands.
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Wet Panhandle moderate-negative firing, 25 days running. Phase -1 historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +2.85%, hit 64%, +1.83 pp above baseline. Phase +1 (Dry) delivers +2.56% / 62% hit / +1.54 pp.
THE WEATHER MECHANISM
Dry Panhandle = drought forces cattle off pasture into feedlots = near-term pipeline compresses. Wet Panhandle = pasture retention holds cattle out of feedlots = pipeline tightens via retention. Both extremes bullish forward LC.
HOW TO POSITION
Pair with LC-corn ratio, FC-LC spread, cattle inventory, slaughter YoY, broader US beef-belt drought. Texas Panhandle rainfall is a focused regional overlay on the largest feedlot concentration.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.338 in the Wet Panhandle moderate-negative band. The blue signal line has moved below the -0.2 moderate threshold as CHIRPS Texas rainfall firmed above the 2-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.338 State Wet Panhandle moderate-negative firing, 25 days running.
- CHIRPS Texas rainfall above baseline Texas Panhandle precipitation is running above the 2-year baseline, improving pasture conditions and holding cattle out of feedlots.
- State-conditional edge: +1.83 pp mean Wet Panhandle historical fwd60d LC mean +2.85%, baseline +1.02%, hit 64%. Current firing in Moderate NEG sub-band — modestly constructive.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE RAINFALL CALL
Composite -0.338, Wet Panhandle moderate-negative firing. Texas Panhandle rainfall is running above the 2-year baseline, improving pasture conditions and holding cattle out of feedlots.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Wet Panhandle historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +2.85% (+1.83 pp vs baseline, hit 64%). Current firing is in Moderate NEG sub-band (above -0.5 EXTREME threshold).
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC is significant (+0.107, p=0.0000). Non-overlap independence test p=0.89 (not significant). Both tails deliver positive edge — magnitude-not-direction signal. Grade B regional overlay.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 9,049 trading days with observable LC fwd60d. Baseline LC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.02 percent mean, median plus 1.74 percent. BOTH extreme tails bullish; Normal zone bearish.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Panhandle | +1 | 32.8% (2968 d) | +2.30% | +1.28pp | Sep 2026, Aug 2026, May 2026 | |
| Normal | 0 | 56.9% (5147 d) | +1.90% | +0.87pp | Oct 2026, Sep 2026, Aug 2026 | |
| Wet Panhandle TODAY | -1 | 10.3% (934 d) | +1.11% | +0.09pp | Oct 2026, Aug 2026, Apr 2026 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d LC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Drought | 10/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 2d | +3.76% |
| Normal | 11/01/2024 | 11/15/2024 | 11d | +5.39% |
| Abundant Rain | 11/18/2024 | 11/18/2024 | 1d | +3.97% |
| Normal | 11/19/2024 | 04/25/2025 | 108d | +3.83% |
| Abundant Rain | 04/28/2025 | 08/22/2025 | 82d | +15.17% |
| Normal | 08/25/2025 | 08/25/2025 | 1d | +2.74% |
| Abundant Rain | 08/26/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 3d | +2.71% |
| Normal | 08/29/2025 | 09/04/2025 | 4d | +3.67% |
| Abundant Rain | 09/05/2025 | 09/09/2025 | 3d | +5.10% |
| Normal | 09/10/2025 | 09/12/2025 | 3d | +4.93% |
| Abundant Rain | 09/15/2025 | 09/24/2025 | 8d | +3.35% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/13/2025 | 13d | +3.24% |
| Deep Drought | 10/14/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 14d | +4.81% |
| Normal | 11/03/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 3d | +1.26% |
| Deep Drought | 11/06/2025 | 11/19/2025 | 10d | +2.37% |
| Normal | 11/20/2025 | 11/21/2025 | 2d | +4.90% |
| Deep Drought | 11/24/2025 | 11/28/2025 | 4d | +2.04% |
| Normal | 12/01/2025 | 03/31/2026 | 83d | +0.84% |
| Deep Drought | 04/01/2026 | 04/09/2026 | 6d | +13.09% |
| Normal | 04/10/2026 | 05/22/2026 | 31d | +9.70% |
| Abundant Rain | 05/26/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 47d | +1.60% |
| Normal | 08/03/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 2d | +1.58% |
| Deep Drought | 08/05/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 1d | -0.06% |
| Normal | 08/06/2026 | 08/14/2026 | 7d | -1.67% |
| Abundant Rain | 08/17/2026 | 09/15/2026 | 21d | |
| Normal | 09/16/2026 | 09/23/2026 | 6d | |
| Abundant Rain | 09/24/2026 | 10/23/2026 | 22d | |
| Normal | 10/26/2026 | 10/28/2026 | 3d | |
| Deep Drought | 10/29/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 2d |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day LC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The signal pulls CHIRPS satellite precipitation data over the Texas Panhandle cattle-feedlot region, computes a rolling precipitation anomaly, sign-flips so dry conditions read positive, z-scores on a 504-day rolling window with 60-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme).
Why it matters
Why Texas Panhandle rainfall reads cattle supply pipeline
The Texas Panhandle is the largest US cattle feedlot region, housing roughly 25 percent of national on-feed inventory. Precipitation conditions affect feedlot operations directly (mud, water, pen conditions) and indirectly (regional pasture quality drives placement timing). Weather extremes in either direction have historically preceded Live Cattle strength through supply-pipeline disruption. CHIRPS satellite precipitation provides daily high-resolution coverage of the Panhandle region.
Why Grade B magnitude-not-direction
Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is +0.107 at p-value < 1.0e-5 across 9,049 observations -- significant. Non-overlapping (every-60d) independence test at p-value 0.89 across 150 independent samples -- not significant. BOTH tails deliver positive edge: Phase +1 (Dry) +1.54 pp, Phase -1 (Wet) +1.83 pp. Phase 0 (Normal) delivers -1.20 pp. Magnitude-not-direction weather overlay. Grade B.
How to use this signal today
Pair with the LC-corn ratio signal (feedlot-margin primary driver), FC-LC spread (replacement-cost), cattle inventory (structural supply), slaughter YoY (realized flow), and broader US beef-belt drought. Texas Panhandle rainfall is a focused regional overlay on the largest feedlot concentration — treat as a weather-regime read.
Related signals
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 01, 2026 10:25 AM ET