Drawdown Analysis
WTI Crude Oil
CL · Growth market
A living read of where this market sits in its own drawdown history, alongside the industry-standard depth labels every equity trader knows.
Where this market sits today
As of market close on 11/10/2026.
Native phase
Correction
Drawdown from 5-year high
-17.36%
Normalized phase
Stressed
Own-history severity percentile
51.7
CL · Drawdown trajectory
Weekly closes of the primary drawdown metric (dd_roll5y) across full market history. Horizontal bands show the phase cuts; the gold marker is today’s reading (11/10/2026).
Scroll or drag the brush below the chart to zoom. All data from the Market Lab Analytics drawdown atlas.
Time in each phase
Share of this market’s full history spent in each industry-standard phase. For a growth equity, the base-rate reveal is the story: most markets spend most of their time either at highs or clawing back from a prior bear, with long stretches in the middle buckets rare.
Based on 9,866 daily observations (39 years of history).
The numbers
Every drawdown lens we compute for this market, all at once. The primary drawdown metric (bolded by convention in the card above) is what drives the native phase label; the rest are context.
What the labels mean here
For growth equity markets like this one, the native phase uses industry-standard depth cuts every equity trader knows:
- At highs. 0 to -3%
- Minor pullback. -3% to -5%
- Pullback. -5% to -10%
- Correction. -10% to -20%
- Bear market. -20% to -40%
- Crash. less than -40%
The normalized phase is different. It asks: how painful is today’s drawdown for THIS market, measured against its own full-history distribution? A severity percentile of 51.7 means the current reading is painful for 51.7% of the history on record. Equity indices spend meaningful time in deep drawdowns (dotcom, GFC, COVID, 2022 bear), so a shallow native reading can still be an above-average reading in percentile terms.
Today both lenses say: Correction by industry convention, Stressed for its own history.
Cross-market drivers
When CL enters its deepest-decile drawdown state, which other markets systematically move with it? Below are the markets whose daily log-returns shift most reliably in the same deep-CL-drawdown window, filtered to those with a 95% confidence interval excluding zero.
Shifts are measured in basis points per day (1 bp = 0.01%). Positive = that market strengthens alongside CL’s deep drawdown. Negative = that market weakens alongside it.
Weakens alongside CL deep drawdowns
JGB · Japanese Gov Bond
Daily log-return weakens by -2.0 bps/day when CL is in its deepest-decile drawdown state.
95% CI [-4.0, -0.2] bps/day
Strengthens alongside CL deep drawdowns
None with statistically significant shift.
How we think about drawdown
Drawdown math is not a one-size-fits-all formula. The same equation that honestly describes the S&P 500 is actively misleading for corn, and both of those break for the Dollar Index. So Market Lab Analytics computes drawdown three ways and chooses the one that fits each market’s nature.
For growth markets the primary drawdown is the standard price divided by cumulative maximum minus one. The all-time peak is a meaningful reference because equity indices trend upward over decades.
Every reading on this page is anchored in real market data. The phase labels are computed from the market’s own full history. The cross-market drivers are measured with block-bootstrap confidence intervals so only statistically distinguishable shifts are surfaced. If a number is on this page, you can trace it back to the data that produced it.