Did You Know?

Did you know the best warning sign for a Heating Oil crash isn’t anything about oil — it’s stock-market fear? The VIX (Wall Street’s fear gauge) flagged every one of the last 24 major Heating Oil crashes in historical testing, on average 6 weeks before they hit.

Read the signal → Z85527

Did you know Heating Oil has historically rallied the hardest when Wall Street is CALM, not scared? When the VIX sits in its low, "all’s well" range, Heating Oil has averaged +4.2% over the next three months — nearly three times its average when fear is running high.

Read the signal → Z85527

Did you know the gap between a cold-winter year and a mild-winter year is one of the biggest patterns in commodity markets? In cold-winter years, Heating Oil has averaged +6.8% over the next three months. In mild-winter years, just +0.7%. A six-point gap that shows up year after year in the data — straight from U.S. temperature readings.

Read the signal → Z3687

Did you know the 2014 polar vortex and the 2021 Texas freeze both triggered the same Heating Oil signal — a simple temperature anomaly measurement — months before prices peaked? Both followed the same pattern: when U.S. winter runs colder than normal, Heating Oil rallies into spring.

Read the signal → Z3687

Did you know hurricane season has historically been one of the most reliable early warnings for a Heating Oil rally? When Gulf Coast refineries get shut in for storms, prices have followed within about five months — the signal flagged 22 of the last 24 major Heating Oil runs. Katrina and Rita (2005), Ike (2008), and Harvey (2017) all delivered the same pattern.

Read the signal → Z20937

Did you know the refiner margin for making diesel — NYMEX Heating Oil futures price minus WTI crude — tends to flash its bearish warning roughly ten months before major HO tops arrive? When refiners are earning historically high margins per barrel on distillate, the market has historically rolled over within the year. Ten months of advance notice is one of the longest early-warning leads in our catalog. (NYMEX HO futures = ULSD diesel since the 2013 contract refactor.)

Read the signal → Z3680

Did you know the 2022 Russia invasion hit refiner profit margins before it hit the pump? The Heating Oil "crack spread" — what refiners earn per barrel of crude turned into diesel and heating oil — went to historic highs months before retail distillate prices caught up. The market knew before the pump did.

Read the signal → Z3680

Did you know the same Heating Oil inventory signal fired ahead of both the 2014 polar vortex squeeze and the 2022 Russia-invasion distillate scarcity? When U.S. heating-oil inventories drop sharply against seasonal norms, the signal flashes bullish — and in both episodes it lit up weeks before the full price impact reached the retail market.

Read the signal → Z101169

Did you know Heating Oil’s best 60-day stretches historically haven’t come during the heart of winter heating season? The quiet shoulder months — fall and spring transitions — have averaged +5.2% in Heating Oil over the next three months. Peak winter demand averages +2.8%, and the summer off-season +2.6%. The market tends to price in winter demand long before it arrives.

Read the signal → Z10128

Did you know a simple mean-reversion check — how far Heating Oil’s price has drifted from its 60-day average — has historically flagged every major Heating Oil crash in our testing window? All 22 episodes caught, with warnings arriving about seven weeks in advance on average. Simple mechanics, surprising reliability.

Read the signal → Z32805

Did you know a mathematical model built to detect bubble-pattern acceleration — the same framework econophysicists use on stock-market crashes — flagged 21 of the last 22 major Heating Oil tops? When the signal fires "bubble risk," forward returns have averaged just +1.5%. When it fires "anti-bubble" at market lows, forward returns have averaged +3.9%.

Read the signal → Z32885

Did you know Heating Oil’s year-over-year momentum — simply whether it’s trading above or below where it was a year ago — has historically delivered a nearly six-point gap in forward returns? Bullish-momentum stretches averaged +5.9% over the next three months. Bearish-momentum stretches averaged just +0.2%. Momentum works, and the gap compounds.

Read the signal → Z3675

Did you know when near-term Heating Oil contracts trade at a sharp premium to deferred months — a state known as "winter carry" that signals heating-season scarcity — forward Heating Oil returns have averaged +3.9% over the next three months? The 2022 Russia invasion delivered the most extreme reading in the sample.

Read the signal → Z3676

Did you know the shape of the Heating Oil futures curve carries real forward-return information? When the front-month trades at a premium to future delivery — "backwardation," typically signaling near-term scarcity — forward returns have averaged +3.7% over the next three months. In "contango" (future delivery costing more than today), returns softened to +2.6%. The 2020 COVID demand collapse flipped the curve dramatically; prices followed.

Read the signal → Z3677

Did you know when the Heating Oil refiner margin stretches above its 5-year seasonal band, forward returns have historically disappointed — averaging just +0.3% over the next three months? When it compresses below the band, forward returns have averaged +4.7%. A classic mean-reversion signal: the market tends to fade extremes in refiner profitability.

Read the signal → Z3681

Did you know NYMEX Heating Oil futures and the diesel you pump into a truck are the same physical fuel? The HO contract trades Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) — refactored from legacy No. 2 heating oil back in 2013. When retail diesel runs elevated year-over-year, HO futures have averaged +6.3% over the next three months. When retail is down YoY, just +0.6%. Not a leading indicator — a same-market trend confirmation with a near-six-point gap.

Read the signal → Z3692

Did you know when WTI crude input costs run high relative to Heating Oil output prices, Heating Oil’s forward returns have historically struggled? Phase "cost high" averaged just +0.2% over the next three months, while normal-cost periods averaged +6.8%. The read: refiner margin compression matters more for Heating Oil than headline crude prices do.

Read the signal → Z3694

Did you know one of the simplest trend signals ever built — comparing Heating Oil’s 60-day moving average to its 252-day moving average — still carries a measurable edge? Uptrend periods have averaged +3.9% over the next three months, a 1.2-percentage-point edge over baseline. Boring signals can work when they trend.

Read the signal → Z6299

Did you know tight East Coast distillate inventories — the ones that feed New England heating-oil consumers — haven’t historically been the bullish Heating Oil signal most people expect? When PADD1 stocks are tight, forward returns have averaged +2.2% over the next three months. When stocks are loose, +3.9%. The read: by the time the market agrees inventory is tight, the price is already there.

Read the signal → Z85232

Did you know when the full refiner margin regime turns bullish — gasoline and distillate margins expanding in tandem — Heating Oil has averaged +5.5% over the next three months, roughly double its baseline return? The 2022 distillate scarcity peak and the 2008 pre-crisis margin peak both delivered the pattern, before the market reset in each case.

Read the signal → Z33302

Did you know when Gulf Coast refineries run below capacity — whether from hurricanes, scheduled maintenance, or demand shocks — Heating Oil has historically averaged +5.7% over the next three months? The 2017 Hurricane Harvey event and the 2020 COVID refinery shutdowns both delivered the pattern, with the signal flagging weeks before prices caught up.

Read the signal → Z102190

Did you know when real interest rates fall — typically during Fed easing cycles or recession fears — Heating Oil has rallied strongly, averaging +6.2% over the next three months? When real rates spike (restrictive Fed policy), Heating Oil has averaged just +0.6%. Macro conditions set the backdrop long before fundamentals catch up.

Read the signal → Z85530

Did you know a single U.S. distillate inventory signal has flagged three distinct regime shifts in recent decades? The 2008 pre-crisis drawdown, the 2020 COVID supply glut, and the 2022 Russia-invasion distillate scarcity all showed up as extreme deviations from the 5-year seasonal band — each one weeks or months before the full price impact worked through the market.

Read the signal → Z1122

Did you know U.S. distillate days-of-supply — how many days of distillate consumption current inventories cover — has flashed warnings about seven months before major Heating Oil events? The signal caught the 2022 Russia-invasion distillate scarcity and the 2008 supercycle drawdown, with the 2020 COVID oversupply triggering the opposite side. Days-of-cover is a simple ratio with a long memory.

Read the signal → Z85236

Did you know when U.S. trucking dollars are flowing strongly (Cass Freight Expenditures running bullish), NYMEX Heating Oil has averaged +12.1% over the next three months? When trucking spend contracts, Heating Oil has averaged -2.3%. A fourteen-point gap, straight from what shippers are paying to move freight. Since the Heating Oil contract trades ULSD — the diesel trucks burn — strong freight dollars translate directly into more fuel consumption.

Read the signal → Z101003

Did you know Heating Oil’s best three-month returns historically haven’t come during extreme freight-volume surges — they’ve come during NORMAL Cass Freight periods, averaging +11.0% over the next 60 trading days? Extreme freight-up averaged just +1.4%. Counterintuitive: the market tends to front-run extremes and reward steady-state throughput.

Read the signal → Z100319

Did you know the NY Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index — built to measure container-shipping bottlenecks, port congestion, and manufacturing delays — has flagged every major Heating Oil event with roughly six months of warning in historical testing? The 2022 post-COVID chain peak, the 2011 Japan Tohoku earthquake disruption, and the 2008 supercycle all showed up. Global logistics stress is a heavier driver of diesel demand than most people realize.

Read the signal → Z96124

Did you know a multi-factor shock cluster detector — firing when vol, momentum, supply disruption, and macro stress all spike together — has caught 2020 COVID and 2008 Lehman at their peak crisis moments on Heating Oil? Six months of advance warning on 6 of the last 22 major crashes. Coincident more than leading, but when it fires, it fires through multiple channels at once.

Read the signal → Z9230

Did you know Russia-diesel geopolitical risk — spike readings on Russia-related sanctions and diesel-flow disruption — has been HIGHER during periods when forward Heating Oil returns were actually weaker? Sanctions-calm periods have averaged +3.9% over the next three months, while sanctions-elevated averaged +1.7%. The signal did catch the invasion itself and the December 2022 EU diesel-ban countdown as Phase +1 anchors, but overall the market tends to price in the headline fast.

Read the signal → Z3715

Did you know commercial refiners and physical merchants loaded up on net-long Heating Oil positioning ahead of both the 2008 pre-crisis peak and the 2022 Russia-invasion hedge wave? When the people with physical barrels are positioned long, their hedging activity typically precedes bullish futures moves by at least two months. The signal caught 13 of the last 22 major crashes with an average 66-day lead.

Read the signal → Z33306

Did you know deep backwardation in NYMEX Heating Oil futures — when the front-month contract trades at a sharp premium to deferred months — has preceded +5.0% forward returns over the next three months? Flat-curve periods averaged just +0.7%; deep contango averaged +1.6%. The 2022 Russia-invasion ULSD scarcity delivered the most extreme reading in the sample, with the 2008 supercycle and 2020 COVID super-contango as the counter-anchors.

Read the signal → Z10132

Did you know U.S. Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) gives a direct read-through to NYMEX Heating Oil because the HO contract trades ULSD — the exact fuel that heavy-trucks and diesel light-vehicles burn? When VMT runs bearish, Heating Oil has averaged just +1.0% over the next three months; when it’s normal to bullish, +6.1%. The signal caught 19 of the last 21 major Heating Oil crashes with about ten weeks of advance warning.

Read the signal → Z3690

Did you know a multi-factor regime-state composite — integrating momentum, vol, curve shape, and macro inputs into a single regime bucket — has caught 17 of the last 24 major Heating Oil crashes in backtest, with about six weeks of advance warning? When the composite reads ‘Bull regime,’ Heating Oil has averaged +5.6% over the next three months. But Bull regime readings are rare, only 3% of the sample — when they fire, pay attention.

Read the signal → Z9231

Did you know the NYMEX Heating Oil to RBOB Gasoline price ratio — a simple product-vs-product measurement — has flagged every one of the last 22 major Heating Oil crashes in historical backtesting? Average warning: about 8 weeks before the move hit. The ratio captures seasonal demand shifts (winter diesel premium versus summer gasoline premium) plus refinery-stress episodes where one product moves without the other.

Read the signal → Z8185

Did you know when NYMEX Heating Oil and RBOB Gasoline start moving together in extreme directions — the refined-products complex entering a joint-tail event — forward Heating Oil returns have historically averaged just +0.9% over the next three months? When the two products drift independently (the decoupled state), forward returns averaged +2.1%. The counter-intuitive read: coincident tails mark complex-wide stress where Heating Oil is often already late to the move.

Read the signal → Z9229

Did you know US Housing Starts YoY — the Commerce Department’s measure of new residential-construction activity — has flagged 16 of the last 22 major Heating Oil events with about 8 months of advance warning in historical backtesting? Construction is one of the heaviest off-road diesel channels (earth-moving equipment, hauling, generators). Since the Heating Oil contract trades ULSD, construction demand transmits directly to the contract when homebuilding accelerates or collapses.

Read the signal → Z101103

Did you know natural gas and Heating Oil are winter fuel substitutes — but the signal fires counter-intuitively? When NG rallies harder than Heating Oil in winter (giving Heating Oil a theoretical substitution advantage), forward Heating Oil returns have averaged just +0.9% over the next three months. When NG has the price advantage, Heating Oil averaged +3.5%. The read: by the time the substitution signal fires, the Heating Oil rally has already happened. The signal fires November through March only.

Read the signal → Z102188

Did you know when winter cold snaps hit, the refiner margin on Heating Oil (HO-WTI crack spread) widens — and forward Heating Oil returns have averaged +4.7% over the next three months? In normal non-winter conditions, forward returns averaged just +0.5%. The 2014 polar vortex and 2022 Russia-invasion winter both triggered the pattern. Cold snaps simultaneously boost heating demand AND stress refinery capacity.

Read the signal → Z8186

Did you know sulfur-regulation transitions — the 2006 US highway ULSD shift, 2010 off-road ULSD, and IMO 2020 marine bunker-sulfur cap — created rare but sharp Heating Oil regime moves? When the signal flags a regulation-driven premium, forward Heating Oil returns have averaged +5.6% over the next three months. These premium periods are rare (3% of sample), but their forward edge is among the largest in the catalog.

Read the signal → Z8187

Did you know US refinery distillate net production YoY — a simple EIA monthly measure of how much ULSD is coming out of refineries vs prior year — has flagged 19 of the last 20 major Heating Oil events with about 7 weeks of warning? When refineries are producing a deficit, Heating Oil has averaged +5.1% over the next three months. The 2022 Russia distillate scarcity and 2017 Hurricane Harvey both triggered the deficit side.

Read the signal → Z3686

Did you know Heating Oil and US high-yield corporate credit spreads have coupled more and more tightly from the 2000s through the 2020s as energy credit became a larger share of the HY index? The signal captures this strengthening relationship via wavelet coherence. Counter-intuitively, forward returns during the ‘coupling active’ state have actually averaged just +3.0% — compared to +5.2% in normal periods. The coupling catches stress, not opportunity.

Read the signal → Z5378

Did you know satellite-derived hurricane proximity to Gulf Coast refineries — using NASA FIRMS storm-track data within 500km of refinery geolocations — has flagged the 2005 Katrina-Rita, 2008 Ike, and 2017 Harvey proximity peaks? The signal anticipates physical supply disruption before the damage shows up in EIA weekly data. One-directional bullish by mechanism: storms at the Gulf = Heating Oil supply risk.

Read the signal → Z99141

Did you know NOAA’s weekly US heating-degree-day anomaly (vs same-day-of-year climatology) has flagged all 5 major Heating Oil events in the test window with about 14 weeks of warning? When winter runs colder than normal, Heating Oil has averaged +4.4% over the next three months. When warmer than normal, just +1.8%. Weekly updates provide finer resolution than the monthly HDD coverage.

Read the signal → Z85233

Did you know when a Chow-Denning statistical test flips NYMEX Heating Oil from ‘reflexive’ behavior into pure random-walk — a rare 1.8% of the sample — forward three-month returns have averaged -10.4%? The signal reads market inefficiency itself: reflexivity captures price-feedback loops like the 2008 supercycle and 2020 COVID cascade. When those loops break down into noise, the market has historically punished.

Read the signal → Z5379

Did you know when a decade-restricted reflexivity test on NYMEX Heating Oil registers its highest reading within the 2000s window — the commodity supercycle era of self-reinforcing rallies — forward three-month returns have averaged +7.3%? That’s nearly four percentage points above baseline. The 2004-2008 supercycle acceleration delivered the pattern in real time. Decade-conditional discipline matters.

Read the signal → Z5380

Did you know Heating Oil’s best three-month stretches historically haven’t come during vol-shock episodes? Normal-vol periods have averaged +4.8% over the next 60 trading days, while vol-shock responder periods averaged just +2.3% (under baseline). The signal captures second-moment behavior in the GIRF responder framework — vol shocks mark crisis, not opportunity.

Read the signal → Z32863

Did you know when US Cass Freight shipments break out to the upside year-over-year — rare, just 4.6% of the sample — NYMEX Heating Oil has averaged +12.6% over the next three months? A nearly 10-point edge over baseline. Cass measures trucking volume directly, and when it surges, ULSD diesel consumption surges with it. Watch the rare firings — they carry outsized forward edge.

Read the signal → Z102161

Did you know gasoline futures have historically LOST money during the spring switchover from winter-grade to summer-grade gasoline? Despite happening right before driving season — when most people expect prices to climb — the March-to-April window has averaged a 3.3% loss over the next three months. The market tends to front-run the hype.

Read the signal → Z96570

Did you know gasoline’s best stretches historically haven’t been during summer driving season OR the big spring switchover — they’ve been in the quiet shoulder months between? Those "nothing happening" periods have averaged +4.3% over the next three months, while both the hyped-up transitions and the deep off-season have averaged negative returns.

Read the signal → Z96570

Did you know the BIS broad real-exchange-rate measure of US dollar valuation hit multi-decade highs twice in recent memory, the 2002 strong-dollar peak and the 2022 Fed-tightening peak? Each time the US dollar reversed within 18 months. This is a slow-moving valuation gauge, not a short-horizon directional alpha signal. The unconditional stats show hit rates near 50 percent at simple threshold rules. Use as a regime observer for extended dollar cycles, not for weekly trades.

Read the signal → Z100398

Did you know foreign central-bank buying of US Treasuries, tracked monthly via the US Treasury TIC system, was heaviest during the 2008 global financial crisis safe-haven flight and the 2022 Fed-tightening carry-rotation? Both times the US Dollar Index rallied materially within months as reserve-currency demand compounded. The signal flipped to selling in 2015 as China drew down reserves to defend the yuan, and that coincided with dollar softness. The signal has about 4 months of average lead time to major DX moves.

Read the signal → Z100394

Did you know the euro’s share of global central-bank foreign exchange reserves peaked around 28 percent in mid-2008 and has drifted lower since, now hovering near 20 percent? Historical pattern: when the euro gains reserve share versus the dollar, the US Dollar Index has tended to weaken, averaging -0.9 percent over the next three months. When the euro loses reserve share, the dollar has tended to strengthen, averaging +0.5 percent. The signal updates quarterly via IMF COFER, so it captures structural reserve-rotation trends not short-horizon dollar moves.

Read the signal → Z100396

Did you know the differential between the US fed funds rate and foreign central-bank policy rates captured three major US dollar regime shifts in the past twenty-five years? The 2000 Fed tightening peak (bullish-DX), the 2011 ECB hike cycle (bearish-DX), and the 2022 fastest-ever Fed tightening (bullish-DX) all showed up as extreme readings in the BIS daily policy-rate series. The signal is low-frequency by construction (CBs change rates on meeting dates), so daily movement is quiet between inflection points.

Read the signal → Z99134

Did you know a Chow-Denning joint variance-ratio statistical test, borrowed from academic market-efficiency research, flagged random-walk behavior in US dollar returns through the extended 2017 low-volatility regime? When the test confirms random-walk, trend-following strategies in the Dollar Index have historically underperformed; forward 60-day returns averaged minus 2 percent in those rare episodes. When the test flags reflexivity (price-feedback, persistent trends), as during 2008 crisis-flight and 2022 Fed tightening, trend-following has had a better environment. The full-sample verdict is random-walk; reflexivity is the exception.

Read the signal → Z5273

Did you know a composite US recession-regime z-score has flagged major US Dollar Index events with about 21 months of advance notice on average? The signal captures growth-slowdown conditions that historically drive safe-haven flows into the dollar (as in 2008 and 2020). Slow-moving, long-memory signal; pairs best with faster rate-differential or positioning signals.

Read the signal → Z40010

Did you know the Halvorsen BIS NEER divergence (a model-based measure of US dollar fair value) flagged both the 2002 strong-dollar peak and the 2022 Fed-tightening peak as overvalued? Each time the dollar reversed within 18 months. The 2011 post-crisis trough also appeared as undervalued, correctly leading the 2014-16 taper-driven rally. Slow valuation signal, multi-year horizons.

Read the signal → Z101162

Did you know when realized volatility across the six major EM FX pairs (MXN, BRL, ZAR, TRY, CNY, INR) spikes, the US Dollar Index typically catches a safe-haven bid? The signal caught 20 of 23 major Dollar events with about 10 weeks of advance warning. 2008, 2015 China devaluation, and 2020 COVID all showed up as EM-stress Phase +1 firings.

Read the signal → Z100397

Did you know when the Lindqvist offshore USD credit measure (dollar liabilities outside the US banking system) runs HIGH year-over-year, forward Dollar Index returns have been slightly negative on average? Classic ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ — by the time offshore USD demand shows up as scarcity in the data, the market has often already priced the dollar higher.

Read the signal → Z101180

Did you know when CFTC speculators pile into net-long US Dollar positioning (aggregated across major FX pairs), the market has historically rolled over about 3 months later? The 2016 Trump reflation and 2022 Fed tightening both delivered the pattern. Classic crowded-trade mean reversion; positioning is the fuel, not the direction.

Read the signal → Z85316

Did you know a multi-factor shock cluster detector (combining Dollar vol, momentum, EM FX stress, macro factors) caught 19 of 23 major Dollar events in historical testing? Average lead time was 678 trading days — nearly two years. Coincident more than leading, but when the cluster fires, multiple risk-off channels tend to be active simultaneously.

Read the signal → Z101089

Did you know counter-intuitively, when China divests US Treasury holdings (via TIC reporting), the US Dollar Index has historically outperformed, not weakened? 2022’s Fed-tightening era saw China steady divestment AND a strong dollar — rate differentials dominated the reserve-flow story. China accumulation periods, by contrast, have coincided with dollar softness.

Read the signal → Z4238

Did you know a composite of US macro growth strength (ISM Manufacturing + Services + payrolls + retail sales YoY) flagged ALL 24 major US Dollar Index events in historical testing — 100 percent hit rate? Average lead was 64 trading days (about 3 months). 2008 recession is the notable channel-divergent case where the dollar rallied on safe-haven DESPITE growth weakness.

Read the signal → Z11241

Did you know when the GBP-JPY carry trade unwinds (GBP weakens versus safe-haven JPY), the US Dollar Index has historically caught a safe-haven bid? 2008 carry unwind and 2020 COVID risk-off both triggered the signal. Classic risk-off proxy via one of the most liquid carry pairs; carry-friendly calm periods have historically pressured the dollar.

Read the signal → Z7392

Did you know a pure calendar-based seasonal cycle on US Dollar returns flagged all 23 major Dollar events in historical testing? Average lead was just 25 trading days (5 weeks). Seasonal patterns (year-end repatriation, reserve rebalancing) are reliable but operate on short horizons. 2016 and 2022 year-end rallies both delivered the pattern.

Read the signal → Z10064

Did you know when 10-year TIPS implied inflation breakevens spike sharply, the Fed has historically moved toward tightening and the US Dollar Index has rallied? 2022 inflation surge was the textbook case — breakevens, Fed tightening, and dollar strength all aligned. Note: 2008 and 2020 were decoupled episodes where the dollar rallied on safe-haven despite breakeven collapse.

Read the signal → Z9037

Did you know CFTC speculator net US Dollar Index positioning peaked crowded-long at both the 2016 Trump reflation and the 2022 Fed tightening tops? Both times the dollar corrected lower within 3 months. The 2008 pre-crisis crowded-short reading also mean-reverted when the global financial crisis drove dollar safe-haven flows. Positioning extremes are mean-reversion fuel.

Read the signal → Z32425

Did you know when the US Dollar and EM equity index have moved in the same direction for extended periods (positive 63-day correlation), dollar direction has historically been harder to predict? The reliable regime is deep-negative correlation, as in 2015 China devaluation and 2022 Fed tightening. 2017 synchronized growth was the decoupling exception.

Read the signal → Z11238

Did you know US high-yield corporate credit spread stress (BAML HY OAS 252-day z) caught 19 of 21 major US Dollar Index events as a cross-asset risk-off proxy? 2008 Lehman crisis and 2020 COVID were textbook anchors. Credit-market stress typically coincides with dollar safe-haven flows; the 2017 low-vol credit calm coincided with dollar weakness.

Read the signal → Z33855

Did you know US Dollar Index realized volatility z-score is best used as a position-sizing gauge rather than a directional alpha signal? 2017 was the calmest period in recent history (extended low-vol regime); 2008 and 2020 were the spike extremes. The signal caught 20 of 23 Dollar events but with low directional edge per phase.

Read the signal → Z32714

Did you know 5-year TIPS real-rate 60-day momentum caught all 17 major US Dollar Index events in historical testing — 100 percent hit rate? Rising real rates (2013 taper tantrum, 2022 Fed tightening) lift the dollar via rate-expectations and growth-differential channels. Falling real rates (2020 QE-era) pressure the dollar via Fed accommodation.

Read the signal → Z11206

Did you know a signal that measures similarity of current US Dollar market conditions to the 2011 ZIRP-grind regime (zero rates, low vol, grinding directional move) caught all 16 major Dollar events in testing? 2016 echo-grind was the most notable Phase +1 firing. The anti-ZIRP 2022 Fed-tightening era was the most notable Phase -1.

Read the signal → Z11231

Did you know GBP-USD 60-day momentum (sign-flipped so GBP weakness maps bullish-DX) caught all 24 major US Dollar Index events in testing? GBP is 11.9 percent of the DX basket, so the signal is arithmetically strong. The 2016 Brexit vote and 2022 Truss mini-budget both lit up Phase +1. Pure basket-component read with high empirical correlation.

Read the signal → Z11219