HO · Energy / Refinery Supply
Z102190 – [HO] HO PADD3 Refinery Util Signal
Low PADD3 (US Gulf Coast) refinery utilization signals direct supply risk for ULSD and Heating Oil. Gulf refineries produce the bulk of US distillate output. Elevated utilization signals the opposite.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.497
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Signal state
HO Bear Gulf Slack
42 days in Stress phase
Phase
-0.55
Positive equals padd3 util low regime; negative equals padd3 util high regime.
Sample
Multi-year window
Daily cadence
As of Nov 09, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Low PADD3 (US Gulf Coast) refinery utilization signals direct supply risk for ULSD and Heating Oil. Gulf refineries produce the bulk of US distillate output, including the ULSD the Heating Oil contract trades. When PADD3 utilization drops, Heating Oil supply tightens directly. Elevated utilization signals the opposite: ample production and loose physical supply. The empirical phase pattern (see regime table) shows Phase +1 (PADD3 util low) delivers +2.81 pp edge on 10 percent sample; Phase -1 (PADD3 util high) delivers -0.90 pp on 20 percent sample. 3.71 pp spread via the PADD3 Gulf refinery utilization channel.
LIVE CHART
HO HO PADD3 Refinery Util Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the HO PADD3 Refinery Util composite value, tanh-bounded. The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX Heating Oil front-month continuous close. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient. Positive composite reflects padd3 util low regime; negative composite reflects padd3 util high regime.
COMPOSITE
-0.497 / tanh
STATE
HO Bear Gulf Slack
PHASE
-0.55
PHASE +1 EDGE
+2.81 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
-0.90 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
HO Bear Gulf Slack
STATE AND HISTORY
HO PADD3 Refinery Util signal firing at composite -0.497, 42 trading days running in current phase. Phase +1 delivers plus 5.71 percent Heating Oil fwd60d; Phase -1 delivers plus 2.00 percent.
THE MECHANISM
The signal takes EIA weekly PADD3 (Gulf Coast) refinery utilization, z-scored against 52-week rolling window, sign-flipped so low utilization maps to positive composite.
HOW TO POSITION
HO PADD3 Refinery Util overlay for Heating Oil. Phase +1 firings reflect padd3 util low regime. Phase -1 firings reflect padd3 util high regime. Pair with related HO signals for stacked conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.497 in the current band. HO PADD3 Refinery Util signal reading in current regime through late 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.497 State HO Bear Gulf Slack, 42 days running in current phase.
- 3.71 pp spread, PADD3 Gulf refinery utilization channel Phase +1 edge +2.81 pp on 10 percent sample; Phase -1 edge -0.90 pp on 20 percent sample via PADD3 Gulf refinery utilization channel.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE CALL
Composite -0.497, current state HO Bear Gulf Slack. HO PADD3 Refinery Util signal reading in current band through late 2026. Phase Stress firing for 42 trading days.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 edge +2.81 pp on 10 percent sample. Phase 0 edge -0.13 pp on 70 percent sample. Phase -1 edge -0.90 pp on 20 percent sample. 3.71 pp spread.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
PADD3 utilization lags by 5 days publication. Does not capture per-refinery outage detail. Signal blends scheduled turnarounds + unscheduled outages. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, Heating Oil forward returns and sample share
Regime table captures phase-conditional edges on Heating Oil forward 60-day returns from live-window trading days. Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread via the PADD3 Gulf refinery utilization channel.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PADD3 util low | +1 | 9.5% (879 d) | +5.71% | +2.81pp | Jan 2025, Jan 2024, Dec 2022 | |
| Normal | 0 | 70.4% (6526 d) | +2.76% | -0.13pp | Jan 2026, Oct 2025, Sep 2025 | |
| PADD3 util high TODAY | -1 | 20.1% (1862 d) | +2.00% | -0.90pp | Mar 2026, Nov 2025, Oct 2025 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
17 state transitions from 01/17/2025 to 11/09/2026. Full history (266 total transitions since 12/13/1989) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d HO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | 01/17/2025 | 02/20/2025 | 23d | -10.04% |
| Neutral | 02/21/2025 | 03/27/2025 | 25d | -0.85% |
| Defensive | 03/28/2025 | 03/31/2025 | 2d | +9.26% |
| Neutral | 04/01/2025 | 04/01/2025 | 1d | +9.62% |
| Defensive | 04/02/2025 | 09/25/2025 | 122d | +9.45% |
| Neutral | 09/26/2025 | 10/02/2025 | 5d | +3.48% |
| Defensive | 10/03/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 5d | +2.66% |
| Neutral | 10/10/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 30d | +5.60% |
| Defensive | 11/21/2025 | 01/22/2026 | 41d | +4.61% |
| Neutral | 01/23/2026 | 03/12/2026 | 34d | +2.15% |
| Defensive | 03/13/2026 | 05/21/2026 | 49d | +11.29% |
| -2 | 05/22/2026 | 06/04/2026 | 9d | +3.14% |
| Defensive | 06/05/2026 | 06/25/2026 | 14d | +3.29% |
| -2 | 06/26/2026 | 07/02/2026 | 5d | +6.09% |
| Defensive | 07/06/2026 | 09/03/2026 | 44d | +1.72% |
| -2 | 09/04/2026 | 09/10/2026 | 4d | ongoing |
| Defensive LIVE | 09/11/2026 | current | 42d | ongoing |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day HO is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
PADD3 Gulf Coast refinery utilization: low utilization indicates reduced ULSD production. Gulf refineries produce the bulk of US distillate output. Target NYMEX Heating Oil front-month continuous.
Why it matters
Why HO PADD3 Refinery Util matters for Heating Oil
Low PADD3 (US Gulf Coast) refinery utilization signals distillate supply risk from offline Gulf refineries and transmits bullish Heating Oil pricing via supply-scarcity pressure; high PADD3 utilization reflects ample distillate supply and bearish HO. The signal takes EIA weekly PADD3 (Gulf Coast) refinery utilization, z-scored against 52-week rolling window, sign-flipped so low utilization maps to positive composite. Transmission is via the PADD3 Gulf refinery utilization channel.
How to use this signal today
HO PADD3 Refinery Util overlay for Heating Oil. Phase +1 firings reflect padd3 util low regime; Phase -1 firings reflect padd3 util high. Pair with companion HO signals listed in Related.
Risk overlay
Three limitations. PADD3 utilization lags by 5 days publication. Does not capture per-refinery outage detail. Signal blends scheduled turnarounds + unscheduled outages. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 10, 2026 04:42 PM ET