Energy

JODI monthly Saudi crude capacity-utilization signal — reads Saudi Arabia’s production discipline cycle; the empirical anchor of OPEC supply policy.

Four-chokepoint tanker-transit composite covering Hormuz, Suez, Bab-el-Mandeb, and Cape of Good Hope; global crude seaborne flow disruption gauge.

Refiners hedge forward distillate demand through heating-oil futures; the CFTC managed-money net position captures speculator conviction on that demand, which leads crude via refiner purchase behavior and crack-spread economics.

Rising TIPS real yields tax crude inventory carry; the composite reads a 252-day z-score of DFII10, polarity-flipped so rising real yields produce a negative composite (bearish crude).

Recent price momentum in crude extends through speculator chase, physical inventory pull, and refiner stock building. The 20-day log-return of WTI captures that combined pressure.

Satellite thermal detection combined with AIS tanker arrival data flags days when sanctioned-country refineries (Iran, Venezuela) show real fire-and-loading-drop conjunction events.

Dallas Fed drilling, Atlantic hurricane intensity, US refinery fires, AMO climate cycle, and USO ETF YoY flow combine into a supply-shock read, net of macro common-factor movement in equity, dollar, crude, and gold.

Speculators adding to their crude bet confirms the price trend direction. The composite blends the CFTC managed-money net-position level with 4-week and 12-week changes.

The crude oil open-interest momentum signal. Eighteen years of continuous history. OI Momentum Down states (minus one) have delivered mean CL fwd 60-day returns of plus 5.15 percent versus plus 1.53 percent baseline, edge plus 3.63 pp. Twenty-percent weight input to CL Extremes Contrarian playbook with contrarian polarity (minus one).

Growth (ADS), stress (OFR FSI), dollar (DXY 21d change), and credit (HY OAS 21d change) all feed into crude demand; the composite blends four daily z-scores and fires bearish during recession or stress.

The crude oil 321 crack spread signal that reads refining margin dynamics (2 gasoline plus 1 distillate minus 3 crude). Thirty-six years of continuous history. Refining Margin Strong states (plus one, 41.6 percent of sample) have delivered mean CL forward 60-day returns of plus 4.22 percent versus plus 2.39 percent baseline, edge plus 1.83 pp, HAC t plus 2.29. Highest-weight input (25 percent) alongside CL Contango M6-M1 contango in CL Extremes Contrarian playbook.

When WTI and Brent crash together and rally together with the same intensity, they are one asset. When they diverge at the tails, pair-trade edge exists.

The distillate-isolated crack signal, residualized against the broad 321 crack to capture distillate-specific demand dynamics. Forty-five years of continuous history. Distillate Premium Low states (minus one, 26.7 percent of sample) have delivered mean CL fwd 60-day returns of plus 3.69 percent versus plus 2.68 percent baseline, edge plus 1.01 pp. Fifteen-percent weight input to CL Extremes Contrarian playbook with contrarian polarity (minus one).

The crude oil term-structure signal that reads the broader curve-shape metric across multiple nearby contracts. Eighteen years of continuous history. Term Structure Depressed states (minus one, 21.5 percent of sample) have delivered mean CL fwd 60-day returns of plus 10.42 percent versus plus 1.53 percent baseline, edge plus 8.89 pp (HAC t plus 2.20, significant at 5 percent threshold). Fifteen-percent weight input to CL Extremes Contrarian playbook with contrarian polarity (minus one).

The CL M6-M1 curve-structure signal that reads deep contango versus deep backwardation as a trend-following commodity-curve indicator. Eighteen years of continuous history. Backwardation Deep states (plus one) have delivered mean CL forward 60-day returns of plus 5.89 percent versus a plus 1.53 percent baseline, edge plus 4.36 pp. Highest-weight input (25 percent) alongside CL 321 Crack Spread crack spread in CL Extremes Contrarian playbook.

Operators choose where to deploy rigs based on relative basin economics. The Haynesville-Appalachia rig ratio tracks which basin is attracting capital, which transmits into pipeline and LNG supply.

Rotterdam LNG regasification throughput measures how hard Europe is pulling physical LNG. Extreme LNG pull tends to signal that the bullish demand is already in Henry Hub pricing and the forward tilts bearish.

African drilling activity leads LNG-export supply hitting global markets by 6-9 months via the drilling-to-liquefaction pipeline. The composite tracks rig count YoY; polarity is inverted so positive reads supply cuts.

Drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) well counts in the Haynesville basin track pull-forward supply when operators complete wells from inventory without drilling new ones. Drawdowns signal near-term supply pressure.

US winter nat gas consumption is driven by residential and commercial heating load. The HDD anomaly captures the weather deviation beyond the seasonal curve that is already priced into the forward.

Three-leg Natural Gas composite, 60 percent EIA L48 storage vs 5-year week-of-year climatology, 30 percent EIA storage seasonal-model residual, 10 percent nearby curve carry, as a Grade B+ directional signal on NYMEX Natural Gas forward returns with INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT non-overlap post-2003.

European TTF gas trades at a premium to US Henry Hub when EU demand pulls hard on US LNG. The spread leads US LNG terminal utilization and Gulf Coast feedgas demand by weeks.

Texas runs more than 40 percent of its generation on natural gas, and ERCOT covers 90 percent of Texas electric consumption. ERCOT load growth transmits directly to Henry Hub nat gas demand.

Recent price momentum predicts forward returns in natural gas because storage-flow traders and physical commercials react to 20-day moves.

Satellite thermal signatures from 1038 US power plants reveal gas-fired generation activity in near-real-time; aggregate plant thermal pressure predicts gas burn and forward returns.

European gas storage runs on a sharp seasonal cycle. Storage deviation from the day-of-year norm leads LNG import demand and transmits back to Henry Hub via Gulf Coast feedgas. The strongest signal in the NG global stack.

Rising TIPS real yields tax inventory carry across commodities; nat gas carries the drag harder than crude because gas storage is more expensive per unit of market value and seasonal-storage financing dominates balance sheets.

Electric-power generators burn nat gas to match load; weekly US power-burn is the physical demand realization. Burn extremes mean-revert (high burn is priced into spot; low burn signals forward strength).

The regional natural-gas storage imbalance signal. Reads when US regional storage levels diverge from the long-run norm. Forty-five years of continuous history. Regional Storage Loose states (minus one, 2.3 percent of sample) have delivered mean NG forward 60-day returns of -13.76 percent versus plus 3.34 percent baseline, edge -17.10 pp (HAC t -2.14, significant at 5 percent). Eighteen-percent weight input to NG Extremes Directional with polarity sign plus one.

The natural gas versus crude oil raw ratio signal. Reads NG-CL from the direct-ratio angle (NG USD/MMBtu over CL USD/bbl). Thirty-four years of continuous history. Shares engine output with NG-CL Fuel Switch Parity (sister pair). NG-CL Ratio Low states (minus one, 76.3 percent of sample, inverse of NG-CL Fuel Switch Parity’s NG Cheap vs CL state) have delivered mean NG forward 60-day returns of plus 4.58 percent versus plus 3.25 percent baseline, edge plus 1.33 pp (HAC t plus 2.86, significant at 5 percent). Twenty-percent weight input to NG Extremes Directional with contrarian polarity (minus one).

The natural gas versus crude oil BTU-equivalent parity signal. Reads when NG is cheap relative to CL (favoring NG fuel switching in power generation) versus when NG is expensive relative to CL. Thirty-four years of continuous history. NG Cheap vs CL states (plus one, 76.3 percent of sample) have delivered mean NG forward 60-day returns of plus 4.58 percent versus plus 3.25 percent baseline, edge plus 1.33 pp (HAC t plus 2.86, significant at 5 percent threshold). Twenty-two percent weight input to NG Extremes Directional with polarity sign plus one.

The natural gas year-over-year price momentum signal. Thirty-four years of continuous history. NG YoY Negative states (minus one, 9.2 percent of sample) have delivered mean NG forward 60-day returns of plus 5.82 percent versus a plus 3.25 percent baseline, edge plus 2.57 pp. The highest-weight input (28 percent) to NG Extremes Directional with contrarian polarity (minus one).

The US LNG export year-over-year growth signal. Thirty-four years of continuous history (early years mostly zero exports). LNG Exports Steady states (zero, 39.3 percent of sample) have delivered mean NG forward 60-day returns of plus 6.68 percent versus plus 3.25 percent baseline, edge plus 3.42 pp (HAC t plus 2.96, significant at 1 percent). Twelve-percent weight input to NG Extremes Directional with polarity sign plus one.