HO · Energy / Trend State
Z6299 – [HO] HO Trend Proxy (60-252 MA) Signal
Heating Oil 60-day moving average sitting above the 252-day moving average confirms a medium-vs-long term uptrend regime that transmits bullish continuation to HO via institutional trend-following capital.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.911
Signal state
Extreme POS
167 days in Healthy phase
Updated
Nov 06, 2026
Heating Oil daily
Sample
44-year window
Daily cadence; 1982 onward
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Heating Oil 60-day moving average sitting above the 252-day moving average confirms a medium-vs-long term uptrend regime that transmits bullish continuation to HO via institutional trend-following capital. The signal is a Heating Oil companion to the CL Trend Proxy 60-252 MA signal (same methodology applied to distillate rather than crude). The 60-day versus 252-day SMA cross is the classic medium-vs-long term trend filter in institutional trend-following. The empirical phase pattern (see regime table) shows Phase +1 (Uptrend) delivers +1.20 pp edge on 37 percent sample; Phase -1 (Downtrend) delivers +0.62 pp on 27 percent sample. 0.58 pp spread via the institutional-technical trend channel.
LIVE CHART
HO HO Trend Proxy (60-252 MA) Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the signal composite value, tanh-bounded to minus one through plus one. The bronze line in the middle panel is Heating Oil front-month continuous close. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient. Positive composite reads the positive-label regime; negative reads the negative-label regime.
COMPOSITE
+0.911 / tanh
STATE
Extreme POS
PHASE
+1.52
PHASE +1 EDGE
+1.20 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
+0.62 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
HO Trend Proxy (60-252 MA) signal firing at composite +0.911, 167 trading days running in current phase. Phase +1 delivers plus 3.91 percent Heating Oil fwd60d; Phase -1 delivers plus 3.33 percent.
THE MECHANISM
The signal is a Heating Oil companion to the CL Trend Proxy 60-252 MA signal (same methodology applied to distillate rather than crude). The 60-day versus 252-day SMA cross is the classic medium-vs-long term trend filter in institutional trend-following.
HOW TO POSITION
HO Trend Proxy (60-252 MA) overlay for HO. Phase +1 firings warn of uptrend regime. Phase -1 firings confirm downtrend regime. Pair with related HO signals for stacked conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.911 in the current band. HO Trend Proxy (60-252 MA) signal reading in current regime through late 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.911 State Extreme POS, 167 days running in current phase.
- 0.58 pp spread, institutional-technical trend channel Phase +1 edge +1.20 pp on 37 percent sample; Phase -1 edge +0.62 pp on 27 percent sample via institutional-technical trend channel.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE CALL
Composite +0.911, current state Extreme POS. HO Trend Proxy (60-252 MA) signal reading in current band through late 2026. Phase Healthy firing for 167 trading days.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 edge +1.20 pp on 37 percent sample. Phase 0 edge -1.68 pp on 36 percent sample. Phase -1 edge +0.62 pp on 27 percent sample. 0.58 pp spread.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Pure price-derived (no fundamental content). Whipsaw risk at crossovers during sideways markets. Delivers poor edge during choppy range-bound regimes. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, HO forward returns and sample share
Regime table captures phase-conditional edges on Heating Oil forward 60-day returns from live-window trading days. Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread via the institutional-technical trend channel.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uptrend TODAY | +1 | 37.3% (3366 d) | +3.91% | +1.20pp | Mar 2026, Oct 2023, Jan 2021 | |
| Neutral | 0 | 36.1% (3258 d) | +1.03% | -1.68pp | Jun 2025, Jan 2025, Dec 2023 | |
| Downtrend | -1 | 26.6% (2398 d) | +3.33% | +0.62pp | May 2025, May 2024, Jan 2023 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 44-year window
What this measures
Heating Oil 60-day moving average sitting above the 252-day moving average confirms a medium-vs-long term uptrend regime that transmits bullish continuation to HO via institutional trend-following capital. The signal is a Heating Oil companion to the CL Trend Proxy 60-252 MA signal (same methodology applied to distillate rather than crude). The 60-day versus 252-day SMA cross is the classic medium-vs-long term trend filter in institutional trend-following. Target NYMEX Heating Oil front-month continuous.
Why it matters
Why HO Trend Proxy (60-252 MA) matters for HO
Heating Oil 60-day moving average sitting above the 252-day moving average confirms a medium-vs-long term uptrend regime that transmits bullish continuation to HO via institutional trend-following capital. The signal is a Heating Oil companion to the CL Trend Proxy 60-252 MA signal (same methodology applied to distillate rather than crude). The 60-day versus 252-day SMA cross is the classic medium-vs-long term trend filter in institutional trend-following. The transmission channel is via institutional-technical trend; petroleum trading desks watch this signal alongside complementary HO signals for stacked conviction.
How to use this signal today
HO Trend Proxy (60-252 MA) overlay for HO. Phase +1 firings warn of uptrend regime; Phase -1 firings confirm downtrend. Pair with companion signals listed in the Related section for stacked conviction.
Risk overlay
Three limitations. Pure price-derived (no fundamental content). Whipsaw risk at crossovers during sideways markets. Delivers poor edge during choppy range-bound regimes. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 08, 2026 01:18 PM ET