HO · Energy / Reflexivity Diagnostic
Z5380 – [HO] HO 2000s Reflexivity Decade Verdict Signal
Decade-restricted Chow-Denning variance-ratio test captures reflexivity regime within the 2000s decade on NYMEX Heating Oil. The 2000s-era verdict carries CD-statistic 1.799 (mixed signal) reflecting the transition from random-walk 1990s.
At a glance
Current reading
-0.000
Signal state
OUT OF Scope
4243 days in Neutral phase
Phase
-0.00
Positive equals reflexivity decade high regime; negative equals reflexivity decade low…
Sample
Multi-year window
Daily cadence
As of Nov 09, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Decade-restricted Chow-Denning variance-ratio test captures reflexivity regime within the 2000s decade on NYMEX Heating Oil. The 2000s-era verdict carries CD-statistic 1.799 (mixed signal) reflecting the transition from random-walk 1990s into the reflexive 2004-2008 supercycle. The signal informs regime-period discipline rather than directional entry. The signal applies decade-restricted Chow-Denning joint variance-ratio test to NYMEX Heating Oil returns across the 2000-2009 window. Decade verdict is mixed (CD=1.799 approaches but does not exceed 2.569 threshold). The empirical phase pattern (see regime table) shows Phase +1 (Reflexivity decade high) delivers +3.98 pp edge on 9 percent sample; Phase -1 (Reflexivity decade low) delivers -1.41 pp on 17 percent sample. 5.39 pp spread via the decade-conditional reflexivity test channel.
LIVE CHART
HO HO 2000s Reflexivity Decade Verdict Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the HO 2000s Reflexivity Decade Verdict composite value, tanh-bounded. The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX Heating Oil front-month continuous close. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient.
COMPOSITE
-0.000 / tanh
STATE
OUT OF Scope
PHASE
-0.00
PHASE +1 EDGE
+3.98 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
-1.41 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Out Of Scope
STATE AND HISTORY
HO 2000s Reflexivity Decade Verdict signal firing at composite -0.000.
THE MECHANISM
The signal applies decade-restricted Chow-Denning joint variance-ratio test to NYMEX Heating Oil returns across the 2000-2009 window. Decade verdict is mixed (CD=1.799 approaches but does not exceed 2.569 threshold).
HOW TO POSITION
HO 2000s Reflexivity Decade Verdict overlay for Heating Oil. Phase +1 firings reflect reflexivity decade high regime.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at and reads . Positive composite reflects reflexivity decade high regime; negative reflects reflexivity decade low regime. Bronze line below shows NYMEX Heating Oil front-month continuous close.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.000 State OUT OF Scope, 4243 days running in current phase.
- 5.39 pp spread, decade-conditional reflexivity test channel Phase +1 edge +3.98 pp; Phase -1 edge -1.41 pp.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE CALL
Composite -0.000.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 edge +3.98 pp. Phase -1 edge -1.41 pp. 5.39 pp spread.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Decade-restricted sample limits statistical power. Mixed verdict is harder to interpret than random-walk or reflexivity confirmed. Captures regime-period discipline, not directional signal.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases
Regime table captures phase-conditional edges on Heating Oil forward 60-day returns from live-window trading days. Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread via the decade-conditional reflexivity test channel.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reflexivity decade high | +1 | 9.0% (605 d) | +7.25% | +3.98pp | Dec 2008, Mar 2008, Sep 2007 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 73.7% (4968 d) | +3.11% | -0.15pp | Jan 2010, Oct 2009, Aug 2009 | |
| Reflexivity decade low | -1 | 17.4% (1170 d) | +1.85% | -1.41pp | Oct 2009, Aug 2009, Aug 2009 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes
What this measures
Decade-restricted Chow-Denning variance-ratio test captures reflexivity regime within the 2000s decade on NYMEX Heating Oil. The 2000s-era verdict carries CD-statistic 1.799 (mixed signal) reflecting the transition from random-walk 1990s into the reflexive 2004-2008 supercycle. The signal informs regime-period discipline rather than directional entry. The signal applies decade-restricted Chow-Denning joint variance-ratio test to NYMEX Heating Oil returns across the 2000-2009 window. Decade verdict is mixed (CD=1.799 approaches but does not exceed 2.569 threshold). Target NYMEX Heating Oil front-month continuous.
Why it matters
Why HO 2000s Reflexivity Decade Verdict matters for Heating Oil
Decade-restricted Chow-Denning variance-ratio test captures reflexivity regime within the 2000s decade on NYMEX Heating Oil. The 2000s-era verdict carries CD-statistic 1.799 (mixed signal) reflecting the transition from random-walk 1990s into the reflexive 2004-2008 supercycle. The signal informs regime-period discipline rather than directional entry. The signal applies decade-restricted Chow-Denning joint variance-ratio test to NYMEX Heating Oil returns across the 2000-2009 window. Decade verdict is mixed (CD=1.799 approaches but does not exceed 2.569 threshold).
How to use this signal today
HO 2000s Reflexivity Decade Verdict overlay for Heating Oil. Pair with companion Heating Oil signals listed in Related.
Risk overlay
Three limitations. Decade-restricted sample limits statistical power. Mixed verdict is harder to interpret than random-walk or reflexivity confirmed. Captures regime-period discipline, not directional signal. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 10, 2026 03:54 PM ET