HO · Energy / Bubble Risk
Z32885 – [HO] HO LPPLS Bubble Risk Signal
Elevated LPPLS bubble-risk exceedance signals late-stage speculative acceleration in Heating Oil that historically precedes bearish mean-reversion; low exceedance signals anti-bubble downside-exhaustion preceding bullish recovery.
At a glance
Current reading
-0.955
Signal state
Moderate NEG
33 days in Stress phase
Phase
-2.01
Positive equals bubble risk regime; negative equals anti-bubble regime.
Sample
Multi-year window
Daily cadence
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Elevated LPPLS bubble-risk exceedance signals late-stage speculative acceleration in Heating Oil that historically precedes bearish mean-reversion; low exceedance signals anti-bubble downside-exhaustion preceding bullish recovery. LPPLS (Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity) from econophysics (Sornette et al.) detects super-exponential acceleration followed by log-periodic oscillations that characterize bubble regimes on Heating Oil front-month continuous. The empirical phase pattern (see regime table) shows Phase +1 (Bubble risk) delivers -1.24 pp edge on 37 percent sample; Phase -1 (Anti-bubble) delivers +1.14 pp on 39 percent sample. 2.38 pp spread via the LPPLS bubble-risk exceedance channel.
LIVE CHART
HO HO LPPLS Bubble Risk Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the HO LPPLS Bubble Risk composite value, tanh-bounded. The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX Heating Oil front-month continuous close. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient. Positive composite reflects bubble risk regime; negative composite reflects anti-bubble regime.
COMPOSITE
-0.955 / tanh
STATE
Moderate NEG
PHASE
-2.01
PHASE +1 EDGE
-1.24 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
+1.14 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
HO LPPLS Bubble Risk signal firing at composite -0.955, 33 trading days running in current phase. Phase +1 delivers plus 1.46 percent Heating Oil fwd60d; Phase -1 delivers plus 3.85 percent.
THE MECHANISM
LPPLS (Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity) from econophysics (Sornette et al.) detects super-exponential acceleration followed by log-periodic oscillations that characterize bubble regimes on Heating Oil front-month continuous.
HOW TO POSITION
HO LPPLS Bubble Risk overlay for Heating Oil. Phase +1 firings reflect bubble risk regime. Phase -1 firings reflect anti-bubble regime. Pair with related HO signals for stacked conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.955 in the current band. HO LPPLS Bubble Risk signal reading in current regime through late 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.955 State Moderate NEG, 33 days running in current phase.
- 2.38 pp spread, LPPLS bubble-risk exceedance channel Phase +1 edge -1.24 pp on 37 percent sample; Phase -1 edge +1.14 pp on 39 percent sample via LPPLS bubble-risk exceedance channel.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE CALL
Composite -0.955, current state Moderate NEG. HO LPPLS Bubble Risk signal reading in current band through late 2026. Phase Stress firing for 33 trading days.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 edge -1.24 pp on 37 percent sample. Phase 0 edge +0.09 pp on 24 percent sample. Phase -1 edge +1.14 pp on 39 percent sample. 2.38 pp spread.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
LPPLS detects pattern but cannot time the reversal exactly. Bubble-risk signal can fire without immediate reversal. Anti-bubble downside-exhaustion harder to detect than upside bubbles. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, Heating Oil forward returns and sample share
Regime table captures phase-conditional edges on Heating Oil forward 60-day returns from live-window trading days. Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread via the LPPLS bubble-risk exceedance channel.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubble risk | +1 | 37.3% (3364 d) | +1.46% | -1.24pp | Sep 2026, Sep 2026, Jul 2026 | |
| Neutral | 0 | 23.6% (2126 d) | +2.80% | +0.09pp | Sep 2026, Sep 2026, Sep 2026 | |
| Anti-bubble TODAY | -1 | 39.1% (3532 d) | +3.85% | +1.14pp | Sep 2026, Sep 2026, Aug 2026 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes
What this measures
Elevated LPPLS bubble-risk exceedance signals late-stage speculative acceleration in Heating Oil that historically precedes bearish mean-reversion; low exceedance signals anti-bubble downside-exhaustion preceding bullish recovery. LPPLS (Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity) from econophysics (Sornette et al.) detects super-exponential acceleration followed by log-periodic oscillations that characterize bubble regimes on Heating Oil front-month continuous. Target NYMEX Heating Oil front-month continuous.
Why it matters
Why HO LPPLS Bubble Risk matters for Heating Oil
Elevated LPPLS bubble-risk exceedance signals late-stage speculative acceleration in Heating Oil that historically precedes bearish mean-reversion; low exceedance signals anti-bubble downside-exhaustion preceding bullish recovery. LPPLS (Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity) from econophysics (Sornette et al.) detects super-exponential acceleration followed by log-periodic oscillations that characterize bubble regimes on Heating Oil front-month continuous. Transmission is via the LPPLS bubble-risk exceedance channel.
How to use this signal today
HO LPPLS Bubble Risk overlay for Heating Oil. Phase +1 firings reflect bubble risk regime; Phase -1 firings reflect anti-bubble. Pair with companion HO signals listed in Related.
Risk overlay
Three limitations. LPPLS detects pattern but cannot time the reversal exactly. Bubble-risk signal can fire without immediate reversal. Anti-bubble downside-exhaustion harder to detect than upside bubbles. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 08, 2026 07:59 PM ET