HO · Energy / Reflexivity Diagnostic
Z5379 – [HO] HO Reflexivity Random Walk Test Signal
Chow-Denning joint variance-ratio statistical test captures whether NYMEX Heating Oil exhibits reflexivity (price feedback and self-reinforcing trends) or pure random-walk behavior. The full-sample verdict carries CD-statistic 1.224 below.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.633
Signal state
Random Walk Active
160 days in Healthy phase
Phase
+0.75
Positive equals reflexivity detected regime; negative equals random walk confirmed regime.
Sample
Multi-year window
Daily cadence
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Chow-Denning joint variance-ratio statistical test captures whether NYMEX Heating Oil exhibits reflexivity (price feedback and self-reinforcing trends) or pure random-walk behavior. The full-sample verdict carries CD-statistic 1.224 below the 2.569 critical threshold, assigning a random-walk verdict that informs position-sizing discipline rather than directional entry. The signal applies Chow-Denning joint variance-ratio test to NYMEX Heating Oil returns, rolling window, with verdict thresholds at the 2.569 critical level. Full-sample verdict is random-walk (CD=1.224 below threshold). The empirical phase pattern (see regime table) shows Phase +1 (Reflexivity detected) delivers +0.54 pp edge on 81 percent sample; Phase -1 (Random walk confirmed) delivers -13.30 pp on 2 percent sample. 13.84 pp spread via the Chow-Denning reflexivity statistical test channel.
LIVE CHART
HO HO Reflexivity Random Walk Test Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the HO Reflexivity Random Walk Test composite value, tanh-bounded. The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX Heating Oil front-month continuous close. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient.
COMPOSITE
+0.633 / tanh
STATE
Random Walk Active
PHASE
+0.75
PHASE +1 EDGE
+0.54 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
-13.30 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Random Walk Active
STATE AND HISTORY
HO Reflexivity Random Walk Test signal firing at composite +0.633.
THE MECHANISM
The signal applies Chow-Denning joint variance-ratio test to NYMEX Heating Oil returns, rolling window, with verdict thresholds at the 2.569 critical level. Full-sample verdict is random-walk (CD=1.224 below threshold).
HOW TO POSITION
HO Reflexivity Random Walk Test overlay for Heating Oil. Phase +1 firings reflect reflexivity detected regime.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at and reads . Positive composite reflects reflexivity detected regime; negative reflects random walk confirmed regime. Bronze line below shows NYMEX Heating Oil front-month continuous close.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.633 State Random Walk Active, 160 days running in current phase.
- 13.84 pp spread, Chow-Denning reflexivity statistical test channel Phase +1 edge +0.54 pp; Phase -1 edge -13.30 pp.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE CALL
Composite +0.633.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 edge +0.54 pp. Phase -1 edge -13.30 pp. 13.84 pp spread.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Statistical test with academic basis; not a primary directional signal. Full-sample verdict is random-walk; use rolling-window readings for state discipline. Captures reflexivity presence but not direction.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases
Regime table captures phase-conditional edges on Heating Oil forward 60-day returns from live-window trading days. Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread via the Chow-Denning reflexivity statistical test channel.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reflexivity detected TODAY | +1 | 81.0% (7509 d) | +3.41% | +0.54pp | Mar 2026, May 2023, Apr 2023 | |
| Normal | 0 | 17.2% (1595 d) | +1.79% | -1.09pp | Mar 2026, May 2023, Mar 2023 | |
| Random walk confirmed | -1 | 1.8% (170 d) | -10.42% | -13.30pp | Mar 2015, Jan 2015, Dec 2014 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes
What this measures
Chow-Denning joint variance-ratio statistical test captures whether NYMEX Heating Oil exhibits reflexivity (price feedback and self-reinforcing trends) or pure random-walk behavior. The full-sample verdict carries CD-statistic 1.224 below the 2.569 critical threshold, assigning a random-walk verdict that informs position-sizing discipline rather than directional entry. The signal applies Chow-Denning joint variance-ratio test to NYMEX Heating Oil returns, rolling window, with verdict thresholds at the 2.569 critical level. Full-sample verdict is random-walk (CD=1.224 below threshold). Target NYMEX Heating Oil front-month continuous.
Why it matters
Why HO Reflexivity Random Walk Test matters for Heating Oil
Chow-Denning joint variance-ratio statistical test captures whether NYMEX Heating Oil exhibits reflexivity (price feedback and self-reinforcing trends) or pure random-walk behavior. The full-sample verdict carries CD-statistic 1.224 below the 2.569 critical threshold, assigning a random-walk verdict that informs position-sizing discipline rather than directional entry. The signal applies Chow-Denning joint variance-ratio test to NYMEX Heating Oil returns, rolling window, with verdict thresholds at the 2.569 critical level. Full-sample verdict is random-walk (CD=1.224 below threshold).
How to use this signal today
HO Reflexivity Random Walk Test overlay for Heating Oil. Pair with companion Heating Oil signals listed in Related.
Risk overlay
Three limitations. Statistical test with academic basis; not a primary directional signal. Full-sample verdict is random-walk; use rolling-window readings for state discipline. Captures reflexivity presence but not direction. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 09, 2026 09:29 AM ET