HO · Energy / Shock Detector
Z9230 – [HO] HO Shock Cluster State Signal
Elevated shock cluster state signals coincident spikes across multiple Heating Oil regime inputs (vol, momentum, supply disruption, macro stress) that historically mark crisis-driven price acceleration on NYMEX Heating Oil; compressed.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.120
Signal state
Normal
160 days in Neutral phase
Phase
+0.12
Positive equals shock active regime; negative equals calm regime.
Sample
Multi-year window
Daily cadence
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Elevated shock cluster state signals coincident spikes across multiple Heating Oil regime inputs (vol, momentum, supply disruption, macro stress) that historically mark crisis-driven price acceleration on NYMEX Heating Oil; compressed state signals calm regime. The signal is a composite shock detector combining Heating Oil vol z-score, momentum z-score, PADD3 utilization z-score, and VIX z-score, bucketed into a shock-cluster state. The empirical phase pattern (see regime table) shows Phase +1 (Shock active) delivers -0.11 pp edge on 50 percent sample; Phase -1 (Calm) delivers +1.45 pp on 22 percent sample. 1.56 pp spread via the multi-factor shock cluster detector channel.
LIVE CHART
HO HO Shock Cluster State Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the HO Shock Cluster State composite value, tanh-bounded. The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX Heating Oil front-month continuous close. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient. Positive composite reflects shock active regime; negative composite reflects calm regime.
COMPOSITE
+0.120 / tanh
STATE
Normal
PHASE
+0.12
PHASE +1 EDGE
-0.11 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
+1.45 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
HO Shock Cluster State signal firing at composite +0.120, 160 trading days running in current phase. Phase +1 delivers plus 2.76 percent Heating Oil fwd60d; Phase -1 delivers plus 4.33 percent.
THE MECHANISM
The signal is a composite shock detector combining Heating Oil vol z-score, momentum z-score, PADD3 utilization z-score, and VIX z-score, bucketed into a shock-cluster state.
HOW TO POSITION
HO Shock Cluster State overlay for Heating Oil. Phase +1 firings reflect shock active regime. Phase -1 firings reflect calm regime. Pair with related Heating Oil signals for stacked conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.120 in the current band. HO Shock Cluster State signal reading in current regime through late 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.120 State Normal, 160 days running in current phase.
- 1.56 pp spread, multi-factor shock cluster detector channel Phase +1 edge -0.11 pp on 50 percent sample; Phase -1 edge +1.45 pp on 22 percent sample via multi-factor shock cluster detector channel.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE CALL
Composite +0.120, current state Normal. HO Shock Cluster State signal reading in current band through late 2026. Phase Neutral firing for 160 trading days.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 edge -0.11 pp on 50 percent sample. Phase 0 edge -0.96 pp on 28 percent sample. Phase -1 edge +1.45 pp on 22 percent sample. 1.56 pp spread.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Multi-factor composite masks which single input drove the firing. Shocks fire late in cycle, so the signal is coincident more than leading. Calm regime can persist for years without edge. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, Heating Oil forward returns and sample share
Regime table captures phase-conditional edges on Heating Oil forward 60-day returns from live-window trading days. Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread via the multi-factor shock cluster detector channel.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shock active | +1 | 49.6% (4599 d) | +2.76% | -0.11pp | Aug 2025, Apr 2025, Aug 2019 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 28.2% (2617 d) | +1.92% | -0.96pp | Mar 2026, Jun 2025, Mar 2024 | |
| Calm | -1 | 22.2% (2058 d) | +4.33% | +1.45pp | Nov 2024, Aug 2023, Jun 2022 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes
What this measures
Elevated shock cluster state signals coincident spikes across multiple Heating Oil regime inputs (vol, momentum, supply disruption, macro stress) that historically mark crisis-driven price acceleration on NYMEX Heating Oil; compressed state signals calm regime. The signal is a composite shock detector combining Heating Oil vol z-score, momentum z-score, PADD3 utilization z-score, and VIX z-score, bucketed into a shock-cluster state. Target NYMEX Heating Oil front-month continuous.
Why it matters
Why HO Shock Cluster State matters for Heating Oil
Elevated shock cluster state signals coincident spikes across multiple Heating Oil regime inputs (vol, momentum, supply disruption, macro stress) that historically mark crisis-driven price acceleration on NYMEX Heating Oil; compressed state signals calm regime. The signal is a composite shock detector combining Heating Oil vol z-score, momentum z-score, PADD3 utilization z-score, and VIX z-score, bucketed into a shock-cluster state. Transmission is via the multi-factor shock cluster detector channel.
How to use this signal today
HO Shock Cluster State overlay for Heating Oil. Phase +1 firings reflect shock active regime; Phase -1 firings reflect calm. Pair with companion Heating Oil signals listed in Related.
Risk overlay
Three limitations. Multi-factor composite masks which single input drove the firing. Shocks fire late in cycle, so the signal is coincident more than leading. Calm regime can persist for years without edge. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 08, 2026 10:57 PM ET