Drawdown Analysis

Mexican Peso

MP · Mean-Reverting market

A living read of where this market sits in its own 10-year range, because drawdown-from-peak is meaningless for range-bound markets.

Where this market sits today

As of market close on 11/10/2026.

Native phase

Edge high

Position in 10-year range

85.9 / 100

Normalized phase

Stressed

Own-history severity percentile

71.8

MP · Drawdown trajectory

Weekly closes of the primary drawdown metric (price_pct_10y) across full market history. Horizontal bands show the phase cuts; the gold marker is today’s reading (11/10/2026).

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Scroll or drag the brush below the chart to zoom. All data from the Market Lab Analytics drawdown atlas.

Time in each phase

Share of this market’s full history spent in each position-in-range band. The 10-year range is rebuilt daily, so these shares are stable: roughly 50% of time in the middle band, 15% in each edge, and the tails taper quickly.

Based on 7,339 daily observations (29 years of history).

Crisis low0 to 2

0.2%(12 days)

Tail low2 to 5

0.5%(37 days)

Extreme low5 to 10

0.5%(39 days)

Edge low10 to 25

3.0%(220 days)

Band-middle25 to 75

29.4%(2,159 days)

Edge high75 to 90 You are here

22.9%(1,677 days)

Extreme high90 to 95

13.2%(969 days)

Tail high95 to 98

13.4%(985 days)

Crisis high98 to 100

16.9%(1,241 days)

The numbers

Every drawdown lens we compute for this market, all at once. The primary drawdown metric (bolded by convention in the card above) is what drives the native phase label; the rest are context.

Drawdown from all-time high-7.93%

Drawdown from 5-year high-7.93%

Drawdown from seasonal high-0.47%

Days since last peak44

5-day velocity (pct points)1.13

Deepest drawdown (last 252d)-9.14%

Ulcer index (252d)3.43

Realized volatility (20d, ann.)13.2%

Realized vol percentile (own)84.6

Price position in 10y range85.9 / 100

Cross-market drivers

When MP enters its deepest-decile drawdown state, which other markets systematically move with it? Below are the markets whose daily log-returns shift most reliably in the same deep-MP-drawdown window, filtered to those with a 95% confidence interval excluding zero.

Shifts are measured in basis points per day (1 bp = 0.01%). Positive = that market strengthens alongside MP’s deep drawdown. Negative = that market weakens alongside it.

Weakens alongside MP deep drawdowns

CC · Cocoa

Daily log-return weakens by -14.9 bps/day when MP is in its deepest-decile drawdown state.

95% CI [-28.3, -1.8] bps/day

BP · British Pound

Daily log-return weakens by -5.1 bps/day when MP is in its deepest-decile drawdown state.

95% CI [-10.0, -0.2] bps/day

Strengthens alongside MP deep drawdowns

None with statistically significant shift.

How we think about drawdown

Drawdown math is not a one-size-fits-all formula. The same equation that honestly describes the S&P 500 is actively misleading for corn, and both of those break for the Dollar Index. So Market Lab Analytics computes drawdown three ways and chooses the one that fits each market’s nature.

For mean-reverting markets we do not use drawdown-from-peak at all. The primary metric is position in the trailing 10-year range, scored from 0 (at the 10-year low) to 100 (at the 10-year high). Volatility products, FX, and rate futures oscillate around a mean with no secular trend; drawdown-from-peak would be actively misleading.

Every reading on this page is anchored in real market data. The phase labels are computed from the market’s own full history. The cross-market drivers are measured with block-bootstrap confidence intervals so only statistically distinguishable shifts are surfaced. If a number is on this page, you can trace it back to the data that produced it.