Drawdown Analysis
30-Year Treasury Bond
US · Mean-Reverting market
A living read of where this market sits in its own 10-year range, because drawdown-from-peak is meaningless for range-bound markets.
Where this market sits today
As of market close on 11/10/2026.
Native phase
Edge low
Position in 10-year range
11.7 / 100
Normalized phase
Severe
Own-history severity percentile
76.6
US · Drawdown trajectory
Weekly closes of the primary drawdown metric (price_pct_10y) across full market history. Horizontal bands show the phase cuts; the gold marker is today’s reading (11/10/2026).
Scroll or drag the brush below the chart to zoom. All data from the Market Lab Analytics drawdown atlas.
Time in each phase
Share of this market’s full history spent in each position-in-range band. The 10-year range is rebuilt daily, so these shares are stable: roughly 50% of time in the middle band, 15% in each edge, and the tails taper quickly.
Based on 9,222 daily observations (37 years of history).
The numbers
Every drawdown lens we compute for this market, all at once. The primary drawdown metric (bolded by convention in the card above) is what drives the native phase label; the rest are context.
Cross-market drivers
When US enters its deepest-decile drawdown state, which other markets systematically move with it? Below are the markets whose daily log-returns shift most reliably in the same deep-US-drawdown window, filtered to those with a 95% confidence interval excluding zero.
Shifts are measured in basis points per day (1 bp = 0.01%). Positive = that market strengthens alongside US’s deep drawdown. Negative = that market weakens alongside it.
Weakens alongside US deep drawdowns
TY · 10-Year Treasury Note
Daily log-return weakens by -6.1 bps/day when US is in its deepest-decile drawdown state.
95% CI [-9.7, -2.3] bps/day
EBL · Euro Bund
Daily log-return weakens by -5.6 bps/day when US is in its deepest-decile drawdown state.
95% CI [-8.9, -2.6] bps/day
JY · Japanese Yen
Daily log-return weakens by -3.5 bps/day when US is in its deepest-decile drawdown state.
95% CI [-6.8, -0.3] bps/day
JGB · Japanese Gov Bond
Daily log-return weakens by -3.3 bps/day when US is in its deepest-decile drawdown state.
95% CI [-5.9, -1.5] bps/day
FV · 5-Year Treasury Note
Daily log-return weakens by -3.1 bps/day when US is in its deepest-decile drawdown state.
95% CI [-4.8, -1.3] bps/day
Strengthens alongside US deep drawdowns
LC · Live Cattle
Daily log-return strengthens by +6.2 bps/day when US is in its deepest-decile drawdown state.
95% CI [+1.3, +11.1] bps/day
How we think about drawdown
Drawdown math is not a one-size-fits-all formula. The same equation that honestly describes the S&P 500 is actively misleading for corn, and both of those break for the Dollar Index. So Market Lab Analytics computes drawdown three ways and chooses the one that fits each market’s nature.
For mean-reverting markets we do not use drawdown-from-peak at all. The primary metric is position in the trailing 10-year range, scored from 0 (at the 10-year low) to 100 (at the 10-year high). Volatility products, FX, and rate futures oscillate around a mean with no secular trend; drawdown-from-peak would be actively misleading.
Every reading on this page is anchored in real market data. The phase labels are computed from the market’s own full history. The cross-market drivers are measured with block-bootstrap confidence intervals so only statistically distinguishable shifts are surfaced. If a number is on this page, you can trace it back to the data that produced it.