Home › Signals › Currencies › Z101089 – [DX] US Dollar Shock Cluster State Signal
DX · FX / Shock Detector
Z101089 – [DX] US Dollar Shock Cluster State Signal
Elevated shock cluster state signals coincident spikes across multiple US Dollar Index regime inputs (vol, momentum, EM stress, macro factors) that historically mark crisis-driven dollar movement. Compressed state signals calm regime.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.000
Signal state
Normal
110 days in Neutral phase
Phase
+0.00
Positive equals shock active regime; negative equals calm regime.
Sample
Multi-year window
Daily cadence
As of Nov 09, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Elevated shock cluster state signals coincident spikes across multiple US Dollar Index regime inputs (vol, momentum, EM stress, macro factors) that historically mark crisis-driven dollar movement. Compressed state signals calm regime where dollar movement is noise-dominated. The signal is a composite shock detector combining US dollar vol z-score, momentum z-score, EM FX vol z-score, and macro-stress z-score, bucketed into a shock-cluster state. The empirical phase pattern (see regime table) shows Phase +1 (Shock active) delivers -0.61 pp edge on 8 percent sample; Phase -1 (Calm) delivers +1.04 pp on 6 percent sample. 1.65 pp spread via the multi-factor dollar shock cluster detector channel.
LIVE CHART
DX US Dollar Shock Cluster State Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the US Dollar Shock Cluster State composite value, tanh-bounded. The bronze line in the middle panel is ICE US Dollar Index front-month continuous close. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient.
COMPOSITE
+0.000 / tanh
STATE
Normal
PHASE
+0.00
PHASE +1 EDGE
-0.61 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
+1.04 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
US Dollar Shock Cluster State signal firing at composite +0.000, 110 trading days in current phase.
THE MECHANISM
The signal is a composite shock detector combining US dollar vol z-score, momentum z-score, EM FX vol z-score, and macro-stress z-score, bucketed into a shock-cluster state.
HOW TO POSITION
US Dollar Shock Cluster State overlay for the US Dollar Index. Phase +1 firings reflect shock active regime.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.000. The dark line tracks the composite value tanh-bounded within plus or minus one; the bronze line tracks ICE US Dollar Index front-month continuous close. Positive composite reflects shock active regime; negative reflects calm.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.000 State Normal, 110 days running in current phase.
- 1.65 pp spread Phase +1 edge -0.61 pp; Phase -1 edge +1.04 pp.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE CALL
Composite +0.000, current state Normal.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 edge -0.61 pp. Phase -1 edge +1.04 pp. 1.65 pp spread.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Multi-factor composite masks which single input drove the firing. Shocks fire late in cycle, so the signal is coincident more than leading. Calm regime can persist for years without edge.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases
Regime table captures phase-conditional edges on ICE US Dollar Index forward 60-day returns from live-window trading days. spread.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shock active | +1 | 8.2% (756 d) | -0.52% | -0.61pp | Jun 2026, Apr 2025, Oct 2023 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 85.8% (7917 d) | +0.08% | -0.01pp | Jun 2026, Jun 2025, Feb 2025 | |
| Calm | -1 | 6.0% (554 d) | +1.13% | +1.04pp | Sep 2024, May 2024, Apr 2024 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
5 state transitions from 02/06/2025 to 11/09/2026. Full history (63 total transitions since 11/30/1989) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d DX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 02/06/2025 | 04/11/2025 | 47d | -6.52% |
| Expansion | 04/14/2025 | 06/11/2025 | 42d | +15.07% |
| Neutral | 06/12/2025 | 06/02/2026 | 252d | +7.51% |
| Expansion | 06/03/2026 | 06/08/2026 | 4d | +1.57% |
| Neutral LIVE | 06/09/2026 | current | 110d | +3.36% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day DX is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The signal is a composite shock detector combining US dollar vol z-score, momentum z-score, EM FX vol z-score, and macro-stress z-score, bucketed into a shock-cluster state. Target ICE US Dollar Index front-month continuous.
Why it matters
Why US Dollar Shock Cluster State matters for the US Dollar Index
Elevated shock cluster state signals coincident spikes across multiple US Dollar Index regime inputs (vol, momentum, EM stress, macro factors) that historically mark crisis-driven dollar movement. Compressed state signals calm regime where dollar movement is noise-dominated. Transmission is via the multi-factor dollar shock cluster detector channel.
How to use this signal today
US Dollar Shock Cluster State overlay for the US Dollar Index. Pair with companion US Dollar signals listed in Related.
Risk overlay
Three limitations. Multi-factor composite masks which single input drove the firing. Shocks fire late in cycle, so the signal is coincident more than leading. Calm regime can persist for years without edge.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 10, 2026 04:38 PM ET