HO · Energy / Trucking Demand
Z100319 – [HO] HO Cass Freight Level Signal
Elevated US Cass Freight shipment volumes signal strong trucking throughput that transmits bullish to NYMEX Heating Oil directly, since the Heating Oil contract trades ULSD, the same diesel fuel trucks burn; compressed Cass freight volume.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.990
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Signal state
High Freight
214 days in Healthy phase
Phase
+2.64
Positive equals freight volume up regime; negative equals freight volume down regime.
Sample
Multi-year window
Daily cadence
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Elevated US Cass Freight shipment volumes signal strong trucking throughput that transmits bullish to NYMEX Heating Oil directly, since the Heating Oil contract trades ULSD, the same diesel fuel trucks burn; compressed Cass freight volume signals weak trucking throughput and bearish Heating Oil. The signal takes Cass Freight Index shipments level, z-scored against 24-month rolling window, tanh-bounded. The empirical phase pattern (see regime table) shows Phase +1 (Freight volume up) delivers -1.30 pp edge on 69 percent sample; Phase -1 (Freight volume down) delivers +0.84 pp on 22 percent sample. 2.14 pp spread via the US trucking freight shipment volume channel.
LIVE CHART
HO HO Cass Freight Level Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the HO Cass Freight Level composite value, tanh-bounded. The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX Heating Oil front-month continuous close. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient. Positive composite reflects freight volume up regime; negative composite reflects freight volume down regime.
COMPOSITE
+0.990 / tanh
STATE
High Freight
PHASE
+2.64
PHASE +1 EDGE
-1.30 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
+0.84 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
High Freight
STATE AND HISTORY
HO Cass Freight Level signal firing at composite +0.990, 214 trading days running in current phase. Phase +1 delivers plus 1.38 percent Heating Oil fwd60d; Phase -1 delivers plus 3.52 percent.
THE MECHANISM
The signal takes Cass Freight Index shipments level, z-scored against 24-month rolling window, tanh-bounded.
HOW TO POSITION
HO Cass Freight Level overlay for Heating Oil. Phase +1 firings reflect freight volume up regime. Phase -1 firings reflect freight volume down regime. Pair with related Heating Oil signals for stacked conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.990 in the current band. HO Cass Freight Level signal reading in current regime through late 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.990 State High Freight, 214 days running in current phase.
- 2.14 pp spread, US trucking freight shipment volume channel Phase +1 edge -1.30 pp on 69 percent sample; Phase -1 edge +0.84 pp on 22 percent sample via US trucking freight shipment volume channel.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE CALL
Composite +0.990, current state High Freight. HO Cass Freight Level signal reading in current band through late 2026. Phase Healthy firing for 214 trading days.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 edge -1.30 pp on 69 percent sample. Phase 0 edge +8.28 pp on 8 percent sample. Phase -1 edge +0.84 pp on 22 percent sample. 2.14 pp spread.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Cass shipment level includes mix-shift effects. Monthly data has publication lag. Signal captures spot-rate trucking, not contract diesel demand. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, Heating Oil forward returns and sample share
Regime table captures phase-conditional edges on Heating Oil forward 60-day returns from live-window trading days. Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread via the US trucking freight shipment volume channel.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freight volume up TODAY | +1 | 69.4% (3571 d) | +1.38% | -1.30pp | Jan 2026, Jan 2021, Jul 2017 | |
| Normal | 0 | 8.5% (436 d) | +10.96% | +8.28pp | Nov 2025, Feb 2023, Nov 2020 | |
| Freight volume down | -1 | 22.1% (1136 d) | +3.52% | +0.84pp | Jun 2023, Feb 2020, Mar 2009 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes
What this measures
Elevated US Cass Freight shipment volumes signal strong trucking throughput that transmits bullish to NYMEX Heating Oil directly, since the Heating Oil contract trades ULSD, the same diesel fuel trucks burn; compressed Cass freight volume signals weak trucking throughput and bearish Heating Oil. The signal takes Cass Freight Index shipments level, z-scored against 24-month rolling window, tanh-bounded. Target NYMEX Heating Oil front-month continuous.
Why it matters
Why HO Cass Freight Level matters for Heating Oil
Elevated US Cass Freight shipment volumes signal strong trucking throughput that transmits bullish to NYMEX Heating Oil directly, since the Heating Oil contract trades ULSD, the same diesel fuel trucks burn; compressed Cass freight volume signals weak trucking throughput and bearish Heating Oil. The signal takes Cass Freight Index shipments level, z-scored against 24-month rolling window, tanh-bounded. Transmission is via the US trucking freight shipment volume channel.
How to use this signal today
HO Cass Freight Level overlay for Heating Oil. Phase +1 firings reflect freight volume up regime; Phase -1 firings reflect freight volume down. Pair with companion Heating Oil signals listed in Related.
Risk overlay
Three limitations. Cass shipment level includes mix-shift effects. Monthly data has publication lag. Signal captures spot-rate trucking, not contract diesel demand. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 08, 2026 10:56 PM ET