HO · Energy / Regime Composite
Z9231 – [HO] HO Regime State Signal
NYMEX Heating Oil regime-state composite integrates momentum, vol, curve shape, and macro inputs into a single state bucket. Bull-regime readings reflect coincident bullish setup across multiple factors; bear-regime readings reflect.
At a glance
Current reading
-0.626
Signal state
Moderate NEG
54 days in Stress phase
Phase
-0.73
Positive equals bullish regime regime; negative equals bearish regime regime.
Sample
Multi-year window
Daily cadence
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
NYMEX Heating Oil regime-state composite integrates momentum, vol, curve shape, and macro inputs into a single state bucket. Bull-regime readings reflect coincident bullish setup across multiple factors; bear-regime readings reflect coincident bearish setup. The signal is a multi-factor regime composite integrating Heating Oil momentum z-score, vol z-score, curve basis z-score, and macro cost input z-score into a single regime-state bucket. The empirical phase pattern (see regime table) shows Phase +1 (Bullish regime) delivers +2.68 pp edge on 3 percent sample; Phase -1 (Bearish regime) delivers +0.12 pp on 87 percent sample. 2.56 pp spread via the composite regime-state machine channel.
LIVE CHART
HO HO Regime State Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the HO Regime State composite value, tanh-bounded. The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX Heating Oil front-month continuous close. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient. Positive composite reflects bullish regime regime; negative composite reflects bearish regime regime.
COMPOSITE
-0.626 / tanh
STATE
Moderate NEG
PHASE
-0.73
PHASE +1 EDGE
+2.68 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
+0.12 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
HO Regime State signal firing at composite -0.626, 54 trading days running in current phase. Phase +1 delivers plus 5.56 percent Heating Oil fwd60d; Phase -1 delivers plus 2.99 percent.
THE MECHANISM
The signal is a multi-factor regime composite integrating Heating Oil momentum z-score, vol z-score, curve basis z-score, and macro cost input z-score into a single regime-state bucket.
HOW TO POSITION
HO Regime State overlay for Heating Oil. Phase +1 firings reflect bullish regime regime. Phase -1 firings reflect bearish regime regime. Pair with related Heating Oil signals for stacked conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.626 in the current band. HO Regime State signal reading in current regime through late 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.626 State Moderate NEG, 54 days running in current phase.
- 2.56 pp spread, composite regime-state machine channel Phase +1 edge +2.68 pp on 3 percent sample; Phase -1 edge +0.12 pp on 87 percent sample via composite regime-state machine channel.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE CALL
Composite -0.626, current state Moderate NEG. HO Regime State signal reading in current band through late 2026. Phase Stress firing for 54 trading days.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 edge +2.68 pp on 3 percent sample. Phase 0 edge -1.98 pp on 10 percent sample. Phase -1 edge +0.12 pp on 87 percent sample. 2.56 pp spread.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Multi-factor composite can mask individual factor divergences. Transitional regime can persist without directional edge. Composite weights are fixed and may not reflect current regime drivers. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, Heating Oil forward returns and sample share
Regime table captures phase-conditional edges on Heating Oil forward 60-day returns from live-window trading days. Phase +1 minus Phase -1 spread via the composite regime-state machine channel.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish regime | +1 | 3.3% (309 d) | +5.56% | +2.68pp | Jul 2026, Mar 2026, Jun 2025 | |
| Transitional | 0 | 9.6% (889 d) | +0.90% | -1.98pp | Aug 2026, Jul 2026, Jul 2026 | |
| Bearish regime TODAY | -1 | 87.1% (8076 d) | +2.99% | +0.12pp | Aug 2026, Jul 2026, Jul 2026 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes
What this measures
NYMEX Heating Oil regime-state composite integrates momentum, vol, curve shape, and macro inputs into a single state bucket. Bull-regime readings reflect coincident bullish setup across multiple factors; bear-regime readings reflect coincident bearish setup. The signal is a multi-factor regime composite integrating Heating Oil momentum z-score, vol z-score, curve basis z-score, and macro cost input z-score into a single regime-state bucket. Target NYMEX Heating Oil front-month continuous.
Why it matters
Why HO Regime State matters for Heating Oil
NYMEX Heating Oil regime-state composite integrates momentum, vol, curve shape, and macro inputs into a single state bucket. Bull-regime readings reflect coincident bullish setup across multiple factors; bear-regime readings reflect coincident bearish setup. The signal is a multi-factor regime composite integrating Heating Oil momentum z-score, vol z-score, curve basis z-score, and macro cost input z-score into a single regime-state bucket. Transmission is via the composite regime-state machine channel.
How to use this signal today
HO Regime State overlay for Heating Oil. Phase +1 firings reflect bullish regime regime; Phase -1 firings reflect bearish regime. Pair with companion Heating Oil signals listed in Related.
Risk overlay
Three limitations. Multi-factor composite can mask individual factor divergences. Transitional regime can persist without directional edge. Composite weights are fixed and may not reflect current regime drivers. Daily IC not individually significant on all sampling windows.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 08, 2026 10:59 PM ET