SI · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z100265 – SI Annual Market Balance Z
Sustained structural deficits (2022-2024: -254, -200, -138 Moz) deplete inventory and create floor for price rallies.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.103
SI Annual Market Balance Z composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Normal
131 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals supply surplus; negative equals supply deficit
Sample
37 years
Live since 1989-11
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Sustained structural deficits (2022-2024: -254, -200, -138 Moz) deplete inventory and create floor for price rallies. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 37 years Phase +1 supply surplus state has returned on average plus 3.70 percent forward 60-day silver return. Phase -1 supply deficit state has returned on average minus 1.19 percent. Today the composite reads -0.103, in Normal territory.
LIVE CHART
SI Annual Market Balance Z: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks supply deficit regime. The pale green band marks supply surplus regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX silver continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.103 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +2.07 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,276 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Normal. Sample N=9,276 days since 1989-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Sustained structural deficits (2022-2024: -254, -200, -138 Moz) deplete inventory and create floor for price rallies.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.103 placing the dot inside the Normal band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day silver returns and sample share
Baseline silver forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 2.07 percent, median plus 0.19 percent, across 3,090 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supply surplus | +1 | 47.8% (1506 d) | +3.70% | +1.63pp | May 2022, May 2016, May 2014 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 20.2% (635 d) | +3.51% | +1.44pp | May 2026, May 2019 | |
| Supply deficit | -1 | 32.0% (1009 d) | -1.19% | -3.26pp | Apr 2021, May 2017, May 2015 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Sustained structural deficits (2022-2024: -254, -200, -138 Moz) deplete inventory and create floor for price rallies. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
Sustained structural deficits (2022-2024: -254, -200, -138 Moz) deplete inventory and create floor for price rallies.
The signal flags the current silver regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 37 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 04:56 PM ET