SI · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z102075 – SI US Silver Import Mexico YoY Z
Only estate Z consuming US_HS7106_IMPORTS_BY_COUNTRY_MONTHLY for silver mine-supply proxy. Mexico is world’s largest silver-producer (24% of mine supply). Peñasquito 2023 strike is the reference disru
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.002
SI US Silver Import Mexico YoY Z composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Neutral
8 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals mexico imports surging; negative equals mexico imports weak
Sample
37 years
Live since 1989-12
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Only estate Z consuming US_HS7106_IMPORTS_BY_COUNTRY_MONTHLY for silver mine-supply proxy. Mexico is world’s largest silver-producer (24% of mine supply). Peñasquito 2023 strike is the reference disruption event. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 37 years Phase +1 mexico imports surging state has returned on average plus 0.14 percent forward 60-day silver return. Phase -1 mexico imports weak state has returned on average plus 1.82 percent. Today the composite reads +0.002, in Neutral territory.
LIVE CHART
SI US Silver Import Mexico YoY Z: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks mexico imports weak regime. The pale green band marks mexico imports surging regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX silver continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.002 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.03 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,268 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NEUTRAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Neutral. Sample N=9,268 days since 1989-12.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Only estate Z consuming US_HS7106_IMPORTS_BY_COUNTRY_MONTHLY for silver mine-supply proxy. Mexico is world’s largest silver-producer (24% of mine supply). Peñasquito 2023 strike is the reference disruption event.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.002 placing the dot inside the Neutral band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day silver returns and sample share
Baseline silver forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.03 percent, median minus 0.15 percent, across 9,208 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico imports surging | +1 | 16.0% (1487 d) | +0.59% | -0.44pp | Apr 2025, Oct 2024, Aug 2024 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 69.3% (6427 d) | +1.04% | +0.01pp | Oct 2026, Jul 2026, Nov 2025 | |
| Mexico imports weak | -1 | 14.6% (1354 d) | +1.46% | +0.43pp | Aug 2026, Dec 2025, Sep 2025 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Only estate Z consuming US_HS7106_IMPORTS_BY_COUNTRY_MONTHLY for silver mine-supply proxy. Mexico is world’s largest silver-producer (24% of mine supply). Peñasquito 2023 strike is the reference disruption event. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
Only estate Z consuming US_HS7106_IMPORTS_BY_COUNTRY_MONTHLY for silver mine-supply proxy. Mexico is world’s largest silver-producer (24% of mine supply). Peñasquito 2023 strike is the reference disruption event.
The signal flags the current silver regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 37 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 04:56 PM ET