SI · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z102095 – SI Solar PV Capex Cycle Top Inv Z
Melek TDS thesis (L8229 canonical): PV silver demand is ~150M oz/yr but 2025 FELL due to aggressive thrifting (Ag/W down ~20% y/y) + first Cu-metallised modules shipped (LONGi/Jinko/SunDrive from 2025
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.819
SI Solar PV Capex Cycle Top Inv Z composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Moderate NEG
235 trading days in current state
Phase
HEALTHY
Positive equals solar capex expansion; negative equals solar capex contraction
Sample
30 years
Live since 1996-01
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Melek TDS thesis (L8229 canonical): PV silver demand is ~150M oz/yr but 2025 FELL due to aggressive thrifting (Ag/W down ~20% y/y) + first Cu-metallised modules shipped (LONGi/Jinko/SunDrive from 2025). Sustained generation growth above capacity growth signals oversupply to capex-cycle top to PV silver demand collapse. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 30 years Phase +1 solar capex expansion state has returned on average plus 0.36 percent forward 60-day silver return. Phase -1 solar capex contraction state has returned on average plus 5.31 percent. Today the composite reads -0.819, in Moderate NEG territory.
LIVE CHART
SI Solar PV Capex Cycle Top Inv Z: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks solar capex contraction regime. The pale green band marks solar capex expansion regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX silver continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.819 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +3.65 percent)
SAMPLE N
7,728 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Moderate NEG. Sample N=7,728 days since 1996-01.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Melek TDS thesis (L8229 canonical): PV silver demand is ~150M oz/yr but 2025 FELL due to aggressive thrifting (Ag/W down ~20% y/y) + first Cu-metallised modules shipped (LONGi/Jinko/SunDrive from 2025). Sustained generation growth above capacity growth signals oversupply to cap
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.819 placing the dot inside the Moderate NEG band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day silver returns and sample share
Baseline silver forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 3.65 percent, median plus 0.93 percent, across 1,410 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solar capex expansion TODAY | +1 | 32.0% (471 d) | +0.36% | -3.30pp | Dec 2025, Oct 2025, Mar 2023 | |
| Normal | 0 | 14.0% (206 d) | +3.84% | +0.19pp | Aug 2025, May 2025, Sep 2024 | |
| Solar capex contraction | -1 | 53.9% (793 d) | +5.31% | +1.66pp | Nov 2025, Sep 2025, Jun 2025 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Melek TDS thesis (L8229 canonical): PV silver demand is ~150M oz/yr but 2025 FELL due to aggressive thrifting (Ag/W down ~20% y/y) + first Cu-metallised modules shipped (LONGi/Jinko/SunDrive from 2025). Sustained generation growth above capacity growth signals oversupply to capex-cycle top to PV silver demand collapse. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
Melek TDS thesis (L8229 canonical): PV silver demand is ~150M oz/yr but 2025 FELL due to aggressive thrifting (Ag/W down ~20% y/y) + first Cu-metallised modules shipped (LONGi/Jinko/SunDrive from 2025). Sustained generation growth above capacity growth signals oversupply to capex-cycle top to PV silver demand collapse.
The signal flags the current silver regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 30 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 04:57 PM ET