SI · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z102608 – SI US India Silver Exports Z
Validates W3335 SI India seasonal event marker (built 2026-09-23) with realized-flow data. Klapwijk persona-validated.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.951
SI US India Silver Exports Z composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
India Pull Strong
38 trading days in current state
Phase
HEALTHY
Positive equals india exports surging; negative equals india exports weak
Sample
37 years
Live since 1989-11
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Validates W3335 SI India seasonal event marker (built 2026-09-23) with realized-flow data. Klapwijk persona-validated. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 37 years Phase +1 india exports surging state has returned on average plus 1.84 percent forward 60-day silver return. Phase -1 india exports weak state has returned on average plus 0.28 percent. Today the composite reads +0.951, in India Pull Strong territory.
LIVE CHART
SI US India Silver Exports Z: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks india exports weak regime. The pale green band marks india exports surging regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX silver continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.951 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.02 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,276 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
India Pull Strong
STATE AND HISTORY
India Pull Strong. Sample N=9,276 days since 1989-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Validates W3335 SI India seasonal event marker (built 2026-09-23) with realized-flow data. Klapwijk persona-validated.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.951 placing the dot inside the India Pull Strong band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day silver returns and sample share
Baseline silver forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.02 percent, median minus 0.47 percent, across 3,898 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India exports surging TODAY | +1 | 57.3% (2266 d) | +1.83% | +0.81pp | Sep 2026, Mar 2025, Jan 2025 | |
| Normal | 0 | 7.8% (310 d) | -1.56% | -2.58pp | Feb 2025, Dec 2024, Oct 2024 | |
| India exports weak | -1 | 34.9% (1382 d) | +0.28% | -0.74pp | Aug 2026, Jan 2023, Jul 2022 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Validates W3335 SI India seasonal event marker (built 2026-09-23) with realized-flow data. Klapwijk persona-validated. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
Validates W3335 SI India seasonal event marker (built 2026-09-23) with realized-flow data. Klapwijk persona-validated.
The signal flags the current silver regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 37 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 04:57 PM ET