SI · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z11188 – SI Seasonal
Multi-portfolio seasonal extension: SI-SEASONAL (Important). Cross-decade sign-consistent monotone-increasing IC (+0.03 to +0.05 to +0.06 across 3 eras). Modern algo era has NOT eroded the seasona
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.435
SI Seasonal composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Mild Season
4 trading days in current state
Phase
HEALTHY
Positive equals positive seasonal window; negative equals negative seasonal window
Sample
37 years
Live since 1989-11
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Multi-portfolio seasonal extension: SI-SEASONAL (Important). Cross-decade sign-consistent monotone-increasing IC (+0.03 to +0.05 to +0.06 across 3 eras). Modern algo era has NOT eroded the seasonal . arguably strengthened as flows become more calendar-driven (ETF-flow rebalancing, Chinese Lunar New Year, Diwali). The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 37 years Phase +1 positive seasonal window state has returned on average plus 3.07 percent forward 60-day silver return. Phase -1 negative seasonal window state has returned on average plus 1.03 percent. Today the composite reads +0.435, in Mild Season territory.
LIVE CHART
SI Seasonal: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks negative seasonal window regime. The pale green band marks positive seasonal window regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX silver continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.435 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.02 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,276 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Mild Season
STATE AND HISTORY
Mild Season. Sample N=9,276 days since 1989-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Multi-portfolio seasonal extension: SI-SEASONAL (Important). Cross-decade sign-consistent monotone-increasing IC (+0.03 to +0.05 to +0.06 across 3 eras). Modern algo era has NOT eroded the seasonal . arguably strengthened as flows become more calendar-driven (ETF-flow rebalan
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.435 placing the dot inside the Mild Season band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day silver returns and sample share
Baseline silver forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.02 percent, median minus 0.15 percent, across 9,216 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Positive seasonal window TODAY | +1 | 40.4% (3744 d) | +1.72% | +0.69pp | Nov 2026, Jul 2026, Nov 2025 | |
| Normal | 0 | 43.0% (3993 d) | +0.35% | -0.67pp | Oct 2026, Aug 2026, Mar 2026 | |
| Negative seasonal window | -1 | 16.6% (1539 d) | +1.06% | +0.04pp | Sep 2026, Jun 2026, Sep 2025 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Multi-portfolio seasonal extension: SI-SEASONAL (Important). Cross-decade sign-consistent monotone-increasing IC (+0.03 to +0.05 to +0.06 across 3 eras). Modern algo era has NOT eroded the seasonal . arguably strengthened as flows become more calendar-driven (ETF-flow rebalancing, Chinese Lunar New Year, Diwali). The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
Multi-portfolio seasonal extension: SI-SEASONAL (Important). Cross-decade sign-consistent monotone-increasing IC (+0.03 to +0.05 to +0.06 across 3 eras). Modern algo era has NOT eroded the seasonal . arguably strengthened as flows become more calendar-driven (ETF-flow rebalancing, Chinese Lunar New Year, Diwali).
The signal flags the current silver regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 37 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 04:57 PM ET