SI · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z11480 – SI CFTC MM Contrarian 26-Week
26-week quintile-based contrarian signal on CFTC Managed Money silver positioning; the four-state regime map shows crowded extremes delivering 626-basis-point forward edge.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.924
CFTC 26W contrarian composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Unknown
28 trading days in current state
Phase
Phase 3
Positive equals crowded short quintile; negative equals crowded long quintile
Sample
17 years
Live since 2009-09
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Over a 26-week window, CFTC Managed Money silver positioning mean-reverts after extreme readings. The engine bins the trailing 26-week position into quintiles and labels each quintile as a distinct regime; crowded-long quintile tends to fade, crowded-short quintile tends to rally. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Today the composite reads +0.924, in Unknown territory.
LIVE CHART
SI CFTC MM Contrarian 26-Week: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks crowded long quintile regime. The pale green band marks crowded short quintile regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX silver continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.924 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.76 percent)
SAMPLE N
4,326 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
UNKNOWN
STATE AND HISTORY
Unknown. Sample N=4,326 days since 2009-09.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Over a 26-week window, CFTC Managed Money silver positioning mean-reverts after extreme readings. The engine bins the trailing 26-week position into quintiles and labels each quintile as a distinct regime; crowded-long quintile tends to fade, crowded-short quintile tends to rally
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.924 placing the dot inside the Unknown band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- T10YIE 10-year inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day silver returns and sample share
Baseline silver forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.76 percent, median plus 0.17 percent, across 4,266 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crowded short quintile TODAY | +1 | 37.3% (1612 d) | +4.75% | +2.99pp | Sep 2026, Apr 2026, Oct 2025 | |
| Neutral quintile | 0 | 13.9% (603 d) | +2.48% | +0.72pp | Aug 2026, Jul 2026, Mar 2026 | |
| Crowded long quintile | -1 | 48.8% (2111 d) | -0.71% | -2.47pp | Aug 2026, Aug 2026, Apr 2026 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Over a 26-week window, CFTC Managed Money silver positioning mean-reverts after extreme readings. The engine bins the trailing 26-week position into quintiles and labels each quintile as a distinct regime; crowded-long quintile tends to fade, crowded-short quintile tends to rally. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
Over a 26-week window, CFTC Managed Money silver positioning mean-reverts after extreme readings. The engine bins the trailing 26-week position into quintiles and labels each quintile as a distinct regime; crowded-long quintile tends to fade, crowded-short quintile tends to rally.
The signal flags the current silver regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 17 years. Individual regime windows can run much longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 12:43 PM ET