SI · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z13042 – SI ES-to-SI US Equity Dual-Use Spillover
US equity volatility spills into silver through industrial dual-use channels; the signal flags the rare windows when ES-to-SI spillover becomes active.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.017
ES to SI spillover composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Neutral
388 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals spillover active positive; negative equals spillover active negative
Sample
14 years
Live since 2012-01
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Silver carries industrial dual-use exposure to US corporate capital expenditure. During high-vol US equity windows (COVID, banking stress), the ES-to-SI spillover channel becomes active and silver responds with amplified directional moves. The signal is sparse by design and fires only in those windows. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 14 years Phase +1 spillover active positive state has returned on average plus 7.52 percent forward 60-day silver return. Phase -1 spillover active negative state has returned on average plus 4.66 percent. Today the composite reads +0.017, in Neutral territory.
LIVE CHART
SI ES-to-SI US Equity Dual-Use Spillover: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks spillover active negative regime. The pale green band marks spillover active positive regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX silver continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.017 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.26 percent)
SAMPLE N
3,723 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NEUTRAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Neutral. Sample N=3,723 days since 2012-01.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Silver carries industrial dual-use exposure to US corporate capital expenditure. During high-vol US equity windows (COVID, banking stress), the ES-to-SI spillover channel becomes active and silver responds with amplified directional moves. The signal is sparse by design and fires
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.017 placing the dot inside the Neutral band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- T10YIE 10-year inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day silver returns and sample share
Baseline silver forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.26 percent, median minus 0.37 percent, across 3,663 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spillover active positive | +1 | 0.5% (17 d) | +7.49% | +6.23pp | Apr 2025, Dec 2022, Jan 2021 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 98.9% (3681 d) | +1.21% | -0.05pp | Apr 2025, Dec 2022, May 2022 | |
| Spillover active negative | -1 | 0.7% (25 d) | +4.65% | +3.38pp | May 2022, Sep 2020, Apr 2020 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Silver carries industrial dual-use exposure to US corporate capital expenditure. During high-vol US equity windows (COVID, banking stress), the ES-to-SI spillover channel becomes active and silver responds with amplified directional moves. The signal is sparse by design and fires only in those windows. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
Silver carries industrial dual-use exposure to US corporate capital expenditure. During high-vol US equity windows (COVID, banking stress), the ES-to-SI spillover channel becomes active and silver responds with amplified directional moves. The signal is sparse by design and fires only in those windows.
The signal flags the current silver regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 14 years. Individual regime windows can run much longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 12:43 PM ET