SI · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z32507 – SI Silver-Platinum Lead Momentum
Silver and platinum share industrial-precious dual-use demand but different supply dynamics; when silver leads platinum in momentum terms it usually indicates investment-demand dominance.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.777
SI-PL lead momentum composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
PL Washed OUT
10 trading days in current state
Phase
HEALTHY
Positive equals silver leading up; negative equals silver lagging
Sample
36 years
Live since 1990-12
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Silver and platinum both carry industrial demand plus investment demand, but platinum’s auto-catalyst exposure and silver’s photovoltaic exposure diverge regime-by-regime. When silver leads platinum in short-term momentum (SI-PL spread rising) the dominant driver is typically silver-specific investment demand rather than shared industrial demand. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 36 years Phase 0 normal state has delivered mean plus 1.32 percent forward 60 day silver return. Phase -1 silver lagging state has delivered mean plus 1.02 percent. Today the composite reads +0.777, in PL Washed OUT territory.
LIVE CHART
SI Silver-Platinum Lead Momentum: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks silver lagging regime. The pale green band marks silver leading up regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX silver continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.777 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.11 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,019 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
PL Washed Out
STATE AND HISTORY
PL Washed OUT. Sample N=9,019 days since 1990-12.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Silver and platinum both carry industrial demand plus investment demand, but platinum’s auto-catalyst exposure and silver’s photovoltaic exposure diverge regime-by-regime. When silver leads platinum in short-term momentum (SI-PL spread rising) the dominant driver is typically sil
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.777 placing the dot inside the PL Washed OUT band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- T10YIE 10-year inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day silver returns and sample share
Baseline silver forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.11 percent, across 9,019 trading days. State-conditional means below.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silver leading up TODAY | +1 | 37.3% (3362 d) | +1.08% | -0.03pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Oct 2026 | |
| Normal | 0 | 22.1% (1992 d) | +1.33% | +0.22pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Oct 2026 | |
| Silver lagging | -1 | 40.6% (3665 d) | +1.02% | -0.09pp | Sep 2026, Sep 2026, Aug 2026 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Silver and platinum both carry industrial demand plus investment demand, but platinum’s auto-catalyst exposure and silver’s photovoltaic exposure diverge regime-by-regime. When silver leads platinum in short-term momentum (SI-PL spread rising) the dominant driver is typically silver-specific investment demand rather than shared industrial demand. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
Silver and platinum both carry industrial demand plus investment demand, but platinum’s auto-catalyst exposure and silver’s photovoltaic exposure diverge regime-by-regime. When silver leads platinum in short-term momentum (SI-PL spread rising) the dominant driver is typically silver-specific investment demand rather than shared industrial demand.
The signal flags the current silver regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 36 years. Individual regime windows can run much longer or shorter than mean sample; macroeconomic context dominates.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 12:03 PM ET