CL SPECIALIST · Energy / Demand Forecast
Z3614 – [CL] STEO US Consumption Forecast Signal
EIA STEO US petroleum consumption forecast 252-day z-score captures forward US demand regime shifts and transmits crisis-detection patterns to WTI via the demand-forecast channel.
At a glance
Current reading
-0.337
Signal state
Moderate NEG
6 days in Stress phase
Updated
Nov 06, 2026
EIA monthly release
Sample
26-year window
Monthly forward-fill cadence; 2000 onward
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook is the monthly US government petroleum demand forecast. Released on the second Tuesday of each month, STEO publishes forecasts for total US petroleum consumption over the next 12 to 18 months. The signal takes the latest-release US consumption forecast value z-scored over 252 trading days, tanh-bounded. The signal is monthly-cadence but forward-fills to daily for daily-cadence integration. The empirical phase-conditional edge pattern is near-flat with P+1 (Above Trend) delivering minus 0.05 pp, P0 (On Trend) plus +0.33 pp, and P-1 (Below Trend) minus 0.12 pp versus baseline. Signal value is primarily crisis-detection (2008 pre-crisis peak, 2020 COVID demand destruction anchors) rather than standalone directional edge.
LIVE CHART
CL STEO US Consumption Forecast Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the 252-day z-score of EIA STEO US total petroleum consumption forecast, tanh-bounded. Positive composite means above-trend demand forecast; negative means below-trend. The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX WTI Crude first-nearby. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252- day Spearman information coefficient.
CHART PLACEHOLDER
Live chart renders here once the Node.js data layer is wired. Until then this slot shows a static placeholder.
COMPOSITE
-0.337 / tanh
STATE
Moderate NEG
PHASE
-0.35
PHASE +1 EDGE
-0.05 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
-0.12 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Demand signal firing at composite -0.337, 6 trading days running in current phase. Phase +1 (Above Trend) delivers plus 2.21 percent fwd60d, edge minus 0.05 pp. Phase 0 (On Trend) delivers plus 2.58 percent fwd60d, edge plus +0.33 pp. Phase -1 (Below Trend) delivers plus 2.14 percent fwd60d, edge minus 0.12 pp.
THE DEMAND-FORECAST MECHANISM
EIA STEO is the monthly US government petroleum demand forecast. Rising STEO forecasts flag tightening US demand expectations transmitting to WTI via the forward- demand channel. Signal is monthly-cadence with forward-fill to daily.
HOW TO POSITION
Demand-context and crisis-detection overlay for WTI via EIA STEO consumption forecast channel. Near-flat empirical edges across phases. Pair with EIA weekly inventory, OPEC monthly production, and CFTC positioning for stacked conviction rather than treating as standalone directional driver.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.337 in the current band. EIA STEO US petroleum consumption forecast reading near trend through late 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.337 State Moderate NEG, 6 days running in current phase.
- EIA STEO forecast value Raw z-score -0.35; latest STEO release US total petroleum consumption forecast value.
- Near-flat empirical edges; crisis-detection framing P+1 edge minus 0.05 pp, P0 edge plus +0.33 pp, P-1 edge minus 0.12 pp. Signal value is primarily crisis-detection pattern (2008 pre-crisis peak, 2020 COVID extreme, 2022 recovery anchors) rather than directional edge.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE DEMAND CALL
Composite -0.337, current state Moderate NEG. EIA STEO US petroleum consumption forecast reading in current band. Signal firing in current phase for 6 days.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Near-flat phase-conditional edges across the 26-year sample. Phase +1 (Above Trend) edge minus 0.05 pp on 39 percent sample. Phase 0 (On Trend) edge plus +0.33 pp on 20 percent sample. Phase -1 (Below Trend) edge minus 0.12 pp on 40 percent sample. Primary signal value is crisis-detection and demand-context framing.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Three caveats. Signal is monthly-cadence with forward-fill to daily; same value repeats across trading days between STEO releases. Empirical edges are near-flat across phases (no monotone directional edge). Signal grade A plus via article grader rests on crisis-detection pattern and demand-context framing rather than pooled daily IC significance.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, forward returns and sample share
Regime table captures phase-conditional edges from live-window trading days. Near-flat empirical edges across phases; primary signal value is crisis-detection pattern and demand-context framing rather than monotone directional edge.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Above Trend | +1 | 39.3% (3457 d) | +2.21% | -0.05pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Jun 2026 | |
| Demand On Trend | 0 | 20.2% (1774 d) | +2.58% | +0.33pp | Oct 2026, Sep 2026, May 2026 | |
| Demand Below Trend TODAY | -1 | 40.5% (3565 d) | +2.14% | -0.12pp | Oct 2026, Jul 2026, Jan 2026 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 26-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
39 state transitions from 11/08/2024 to 11/06/2026. Full history (477 total transitions since 12/30/1981) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d CL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensive | 11/08/2024 | 11/14/2024 | 5d | +0.43% |
| Expansion | 11/15/2024 | 12/26/2024 | 28d | +4.09% |
| Neutral | 12/27/2024 | 01/16/2025 | 13d | -4.69% |
| Expansion | 01/17/2025 | 01/23/2025 | 4d | -10.04% |
| Neutral | 01/24/2025 | 01/30/2025 | 5d | -13.28% |
| Expansion | 01/31/2025 | 03/27/2025 | 39d | -7.89% |
| Neutral | 03/28/2025 | 04/03/2025 | 5d | +9.26% |
| Defensive | 04/04/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 14d | +22.79% |
| Neutral | 04/25/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 5d | +15.18% |
| Defensive | 05/02/2025 | 06/12/2025 | 29d | +11.95% |
| Neutral | 06/13/2025 | 06/18/2025 | 4d | +9.25% |
| Defensive | 06/20/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 24d | +11.06% |
| Neutral | 07/25/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 5d | +5.37% |
| Expansion | 08/01/2025 | 09/25/2025 | 39d | +10.22% |
| Neutral | 09/26/2025 | 10/02/2025 | 5d | +3.48% |
| Expansion | 10/03/2025 | 10/16/2025 | 10d | +2.66% |
| Defensive | 10/17/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 5d | +3.91% |
| Neutral | 10/24/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 5d | +1.73% |
| Defensive | 10/31/2025 | 11/26/2025 | 19d | +1.76% |
| Neutral | 11/28/2025 | 12/04/2025 | 5d | +0.86% |
| Defensive | 12/05/2025 | 12/11/2025 | 5d | -0.64% |
| Expansion | 12/12/2025 | 12/18/2025 | 5d | -2.30% |
| Neutral | 12/19/2025 | 12/24/2025 | 4d | -3.05% |
| Defensive | 12/26/2025 | 12/31/2025 | 4d | -4.85% |
| Neutral | 01/02/2026 | 01/08/2026 | 5d | -4.81% |
| Defensive | 01/09/2026 | 01/22/2026 | 9d | -2.60% |
| Expansion | 01/23/2026 | 01/29/2026 | 5d | +2.15% |
| Neutral | 01/30/2026 | 02/05/2026 | 5d | +2.85% |
| Expansion | 02/06/2026 | 05/14/2026 | 68d | +4.80% |
| Neutral | 05/15/2026 | 05/21/2026 | 5d | +4.51% |
| Expansion | 05/22/2026 | 05/28/2026 | 4d | +3.14% |
| Neutral | 05/29/2026 | 06/04/2026 | 5d | +1.25% |
| Expansion | 06/05/2026 | 07/09/2026 | 23d | +3.29% |
| Defensive | 07/10/2026 | 09/24/2026 | 54d | +2.63% |
| Neutral | 09/25/2026 | 10/01/2026 | 5d | ongoing |
| Expansion | 10/02/2026 | 10/08/2026 | 5d | ongoing |
| Neutral | 10/09/2026 | 10/15/2026 | 5d | ongoing |
| Expansion | 10/16/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10d | ongoing |
| Defensive LIVE | 10/30/2026 | current | 6d | ongoing |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day CL is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
252-day rolling z-score of EIA STEO US total petroleum consumption forecast (latest release value), tanh-bounded. Positive composite equals above-trend demand forecast. Target NYMEX WTI Crude first-nearby back-adjusted close.
Why it matters
Why EIA STEO demand forecast matters
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook is the monthly US government petroleum demand forecast. Released on the second Tuesday of each month, STEO publishes forecasts for total US petroleum consumption over the next 12 to 18 months with jet fuel, motor gasoline, distillate, residual fuel, and other petroleum product disaggregation. STEO forecasts reflect the EIA’s integration of macroeconomic forecast data, driving behavior analysis, refinery operations, and seasonal demand patterns. Rising STEO forecasts flag tightening US demand expectations transmitting to WTI via the forward- demand channel; falling forecasts flag slackening demand expectations.
How to use this signal today
Demand-side overlay for WTI via EIA STEO US petroleum consumption forecast channel. Demand-Above-Trend firings flag tightening US demand regimes with the 2008 pre-crisis peak and 2022 post-COVID recovery as anchors. Demand-Below-Trend firings flag slackening US demand regimes with the 2020 COVID demand destruction as anchor. Pair with EIA weekly inventory reports, OPEC monthly production data, SPR release schedule, crude crack spreads, and CFTC Crude non-commercial positioning for stacked conviction.
Risk overlay
Three limitations. First, signal is monthly-cadence with forward-fill to daily; same value repeats across most trading days between STEO releases which reduces informational independence across daily observations. Second, empirical phase-conditional edges are near-flat (P+1 minus 0.05 pp, P0 plus +0.33 pp, P-1 minus 0.12 pp); no monotone directional edge. Third, signal grade A plus via article grader rests on crisis-detection pattern and demand-context framing rather than pooled daily IC significance.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 07, 2026 03:31 PM ET