SI · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z3796 – SI US Mint Silver Eagle YoY
US Mint silver eagle sales track retail physical-silver demand; the year-on-year z-score captures retail-coin investment cycles and hoarding behavior with multi-year lead on prices.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.449
Silver Eagle YoY composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Moderate POS
26 trading days in current state
Phase
STRESS
Positive equals retail hoarding surge; negative equals retail demand weak
Sample
36 years
Live since 1990-11
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
US Mint silver eagle sales are the cleanest retail-coin demand gauge in silver. Retail hoarding surges (2008-2011, 2020) have historically led silver bull cycles by months. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 36 years Phase 0 normal state has delivered mean plus 3.62 percent forward 60 day silver return. Phase +1 retail hoarding surge state has delivered mean minus 0.27 percent. Today the composite reads +0.449, in Moderate POS territory.
LIVE CHART
SI US Mint Silver Eagle YoY: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks retail demand weak regime. The pale green band marks retail hoarding surge regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX silver continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.449 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.11 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,024 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Moderate POS. Sample N=9,024 days since 1990-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
US Mint silver eagle sales are the cleanest retail-coin demand gauge in silver. Retail hoarding surges (2008-2011, 2020) have historically led silver bull cycles by months.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.449 placing the dot inside the Moderate POS band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- T10YIE 10-year inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day silver returns and sample share
Baseline silver forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.11 percent, across 9,024 trading days. State-conditional means below.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail hoarding surge | +1 | 25.7% (2316 d) | -0.27% | -1.38pp | Jun 2026, Jan 2026, Apr 2024 | |
| Normal | 0 | 22.8% (2056 d) | +3.62% | +2.51pp | Aug 2026, Oct 2025, Jan 2025 | |
| Retail demand weak TODAY | -1 | 51.6% (4652 d) | +0.70% | -0.40pp | Oct 2026, Apr 2026, Feb 2025 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
US Mint silver eagle sales are the cleanest retail-coin demand gauge in silver. Retail hoarding surges (2008-2011, 2020) have historically led silver bull cycles by months. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
US Mint silver eagle sales are the cleanest retail-coin demand gauge in silver. Retail hoarding surges (2008-2011, 2020) have historically led silver bull cycles by months.
The signal flags the current silver regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 36 years. Individual regime windows can run much longer or shorter than mean sample; macroeconomic context dominates.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 12:03 PM ET