SI · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z5726 – SI SWT Energy D8+ Long Cycle Dominance
The SI SWT Energy D8+ Long Cycle Dominance signal captures a distinct silver market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a tanh-bounded composite between minus one and plus o
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.059
SI SWT Energy D8+ Long Cycle Dominance composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Long Cycle Typical
110 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals long cycle dominant; negative equals short cycle dominant
Sample
29 years
Live since 1997-01
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The SI SWT Energy D8+ Long Cycle Dominance signal captures a distinct silver market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a tanh-bounded composite between minus one and plus one. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Across 29 years Phase +1 long cycle dominant state has returned on average minus 0.16 percent forward 60-day silver return. Phase -1 short cycle dominant state has returned on average plus 2.40 percent. Today the composite reads +0.059, in Long Cycle Typical territory.
LIVE CHART
SI SWT Energy D8+ Long Cycle Dominance: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks short cycle dominant regime. The pale green band marks long cycle dominant regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX silver continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.059 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +1.39 percent)
SAMPLE N
7,480 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Long Cycle Typical
STATE AND HISTORY
Long Cycle Typical. Sample N=7,480 days since 1997-01.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
The SI SWT Energy D8+ Long Cycle Dominance signal captures a distinct silver market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a tanh-bounded composite between minus one and plus one.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.059 placing the dot inside the Long Cycle Typical band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- 10-year TIPS-implied inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime phases, forward 60-day silver returns and sample share
Baseline silver forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 1.39 percent, median plus 0.23 percent, across 7,357 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long cycle dominant | +1 | 19.5% (1449 d) | -0.16% | -1.54pp | Mar 2026, Aug 2022, Aug 2020 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 33.3% (2472 d) | +0.84% | -0.54pp | Jun 2026, Oct 2025, May 2024 | |
| Short cycle dominant | -1 | 47.1% (3496 d) | +2.40% | +1.01pp | Aug 2024, Nov 2022, Feb 2022 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The SI SWT Energy D8+ Long Cycle Dominance signal captures a distinct silver market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a tanh-bounded composite between minus one and plus one. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
The SI SWT Energy D8+ Long Cycle Dominance signal captures a distinct silver market regime driven by its underlying mechanism; the engine produces a tanh-bounded composite between minus one and plus one.
The signal flags the current silver regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 29 years. Individual regime windows can run longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 04:58 PM ET