SI · Metals / Cross-Asset Coherence Regime
Z6348 – SI Seasonal Window
Silver carries a distinct seasonal pattern anchored in Indian wedding-season physical demand and Chinese New Year flows; the window regime flags the months with historical positive bias.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.400
Silver seasonal window composite, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Moderate POS
29 trading days in current state
Phase
HEALTHY
Positive equals seasonal window active; negative equals off-season
Sample
36 years
Live since 1990-11
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Silver seasonal pattern is anchored by Indian wedding-season physical demand (September through January) and Chinese New Year flows (January through February). These windows have delivered consistently positive forward returns over three-plus decades. The signal flags the seasonal window. The composite is bounded between minus one and plus one through tanh. Today the composite reads +0.400, in Moderate POS territory.
LIVE CHART
SI Seasonal Window: composite bounded minus one to plus one.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band marks off-season regime. The pale green band marks seasonal window active regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX silver continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in cents per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.400 / tanh
STATE
(nightly)
PHASE
(nightly)
FWD 60d
(nightly, baseline +2.78 percent)
SAMPLE N
9,024 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Moderate POS. Sample N=9,024 days since 1990-11.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
Silver seasonal pattern is anchored by Indian wedding-season physical demand (September through January) and Chinese New Year flows (January through February). These windows have delivered consistently positive forward returns over three-plus decades. The signal flags the seasona
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal is a regime detector on a 60-day forward horizon. Pair with price momentum signals for conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.400 placing the dot inside the Moderate POS band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Silver returns Primary silver price momentum.
- T10YIE 10-year inflation breakeven Market-implied inflation expectation.
- Rolling coherence trend 5-year first-difference of coherence at 170-day cycles.
THE REGIME MAP
The two regime phases, forward 60-day silver returns and sample share
Baseline silver forward 60 day return (unconditional): mean plus 2.78 percent, median plus 0.76 percent, across 8,882 trading days.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seasonal window active TODAY | +1 | 17.0% (1523 d) | +6.59% | +3.81pp | Sep 2026, Sep 2025, Sep 2024 | |
| Off-season | -1 | 83.0% (7419 d) | +2.01% | -0.77pp | Nov 2025, Nov 2024, Nov 2023 |
The historical pattern
How to use the signal today
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/28/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 7d | +3.19% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/06/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 1d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/07/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 1d | +1.80% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/08/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 2d | +0.43% |
| Normal | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 11/21/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 7d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/03/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 7d | -4.48% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 12/12/2024 | 09/24/2025 | 196d | -8.76% |
| Normal | 09/25/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 11d | +3.24% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 1d | +5.60% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 5d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Pos (silver Compressed) | 10/20/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 6d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/28/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 11d | +0.83% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/18/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 3d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 11/21/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 3d | +4.61% |
| Extreme Neg (silver Outperforming) | 11/26/2025 | 10/26/2026 | 229d | +1.98% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Silver seasonal pattern is anchored by Indian wedding-season physical demand (September through January) and Chinese New Year flows (January through February). These windows have delivered consistently positive forward returns over three-plus decades. The signal flags the seasonal window. The composite is z-scored against a trailing baseline and bounded through tanh.
Why it matters
Silver seasonal pattern is anchored by Indian wedding-season physical demand (September through January) and Chinese New Year flows (January through February). These windows have delivered consistently positive forward returns over three-plus decades. The signal flags the seasonal window.
The signal flags the current silver regime for the next 60 trading days on average. Pair with price-based signals for precise entry.
State-conditional spreads are empirical averages across 36 years. Individual regime windows can run much longer or shorter than mean sample.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 12:43 PM ET